Obdurate Putin will obstruct end to Ukraine war

Significance

These comments by one of Russia's less hawkish adversaries reflect pessimism about the chances of identifying a route to conflict resolution. Nonetheless, the first anniversary of the invasion has generated discussion of possible outcomes in which conflict leads to victory or defeat for either side, or does not move beyond stalemate.

Impacts

• Moscow's insistence that it is under Western attack is an obstacle to clear-headed talks.
• Kyiv will press Western governments for military aid but must realise this is finite.
• A post-war Ukraine could move towards EU accession, slowly, and NATO membership, probably more speedily.