Russia can expect only limited Chinese assistance

Significance

China's leadership has offered Russia general expressions of support given the adversities it faces, but this falls far short of wholehearted backing for its war in Ukraine. Chinese businesses have taken up opportunities created by Russia's economic isolation, but only selectively and very much on their terms.

Impacts

• While Western media often talk up the risks of a Russia-China security alliance, there is no evidence Beijing will send weapons.
• The invasion is often equated with Chinese claims on Taiwan, but from a legal perspective it is closer to the separatism that Beijing fears.
• The G7 is expected to introduce the price cap, banning shipping and insurance of oil above a certain price, on December 5.