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Middle East militias reshape politics and business

Location:

MIDDLE EAST

The impact of the rise of militias on the Middle East.

Russia's integration of Ukrainian lands will be patchy

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UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Annexation has not proceeded smoothly, despite talk of streamlined political and economic integration. Limited control of the four 'new regions', continuing warfare and…

South Ossetia border with Georgia will stay tense

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GEORGIA/RUSSIA

Controversial moves to mark the South Ossetia border.

Egypt's stability turns on economy, Ethiopia and Libya

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EGYPT

While domestically stable, Egypt’s external outlook has focused on countries that have the potential to stir turmoil for Egypt, such as Libya and Ethiopia, while maintaining a…

Iraq’s Tal Afar offensive may spark infighting

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IRAQ

The main assault from the south is led by the national army, with US air support. However, Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) are also participating to the east and…

Armenian elections may change political map

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ARMENIA

The reform cycle ends when incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan steps down in April 2018, and his successor assumes a more ceremonial role. The elections take place amid mounting…

Gaza war will hit non-oil Middle East economies hard

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MIDDLE EAST

The conflict will damage the economic prospects of Israel, Egypt and Jordan, even without a major regional escalation. The Gulf Arab states, Iraq and Algeria will benefit from the…

Syrian reconstruction plans will multiply

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SYRIA

The five-year war in Syria has caused significant damage to urban infrastructure. Negotiations convened by Russia and Turkey in Astana, Kazakhstan, have raised expectations of a…

Gaza Palestinians face crisis at best; war at worst

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PALESTINIANS

Hospital staff have not been paid for five months, reflecting rising economic constraints in Gaza, which is controlled by Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas. An October 2017…

Russia's new army command designed to focus war effort

Location:

RUSSIA

Armed forces chief of staff Valery Gerasimov is now in direct charge of Ukrainian theatre operations. This and other appointments fall within a substantive ramping up of the…