Syrian reconstruction plans will multiply

Significance

The five-year war in Syria has caused significant damage to urban infrastructure. Negotiations convened by Russia and Turkey in Astana, Kazakhstan, have raised expectations of a new phase, with lower levels of conflict and the beginnings of reconstruction.

Impacts

• Funding for large-scale reconstruction will not materialise in 2017, with the focus on smaller rehabilitation projects.
• Political reconstruction will be deeply controversial, with multiple competing drafts of a new Syrian constitution.
• Refugees will not return in large numbers until the conflict subsides, and many may never return.