Iraq’s Tal Afar offensive may spark infighting

Significance

The main assault from the south is led by the national army, with US air support. However, Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) are also participating to the east and west, while Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Peshmerga hold areas in the north.

Impacts

• IS fighters will hold out as long as possible in Tal Afar, likely using civilians as human shields.
• The Kurdish secession referendum planned for September 25 could be an immediate trigger of violence.
• The KRG is likely to insist on holding the vote in disputed areas under its military control, to establish a claim for annexation.
• International oil and gas firms that have signed contracts with the KRG will hang back from new investment in disputed areas.