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Prospects for Iran to end-2020

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PROSPECTS H2 2020

Politicians will increasingly look to presidential polls due in 2021, further weakening the incumbent. The external environment remains largely unfavourable.

Prospects for US foreign policy in 2016

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PROSPECTS 2016

Prospects for US foreign policy in 2016.

Libya unity government will probably prolong its term

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LIBYA

The Government of National Accord in Tripoli had handed over power on March 16. The ceremony means Libya now has its first unified government since 2014. The new government has a…

Arms issue could quash Palestinian reconciliation

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PALESTINIANS

This came after US Special Envoy Jason Greenblatt set conditions for the engagement of a future Palestinian unity government in peace negotiations that closely echoed Israeli…

Benishangul-Gumuz unrest complicates Ethiopia’s crisis

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ETHIOPIA

The attacks were apparently orchestrated by armed vigilantes from the Gumuz ethnic group targeting people mainly of Amhara but also of Oromo and Agaw origin. The killings not only…

Somalia's emboldened president will remain embattled

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SOMALIA

President Mohammed Abdullahi ‘Farmajo’ appears emboldened after facing down a series of domestic political crises, including allegations of interference in the South-west state…

Islamabad will struggle to curb Pakistani Taliban

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PAKISTAN

In late November, the TTP ended a ceasefire with Islamabad and ordered its combatants to return to full insurgency. Responding to the threat is a top priority for the…

Somalia faces another electoral impasse

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SOMALIA

Opposition leaders are refusing to participate in the polls unless newly constituted electoral committees are reformed to eliminate bias towards Farmajo, among other things.

Iraq’s Sunnis and Kurds face a more peripheral future

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IRAQ

Discussions on the future of the US-Iraq security relationship will be followed with intense interest by both Iran-backed Shia forces in Iraq and their increasingly sidelined…

Iraq’s upcoming government will have a limited mandate

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IRAQ

He promised the protesters -- who reject him as a member of the ruling establishment -- wholesale reforms, a say in the new cabinet and an end to the security crackdown. This came…