Iraq’s Sunnis and Kurds face a more peripheral future

Significance

Discussions on the future of the US-Iraq security relationship will be followed with intense interest by both Iran-backed Shia forces in Iraq and their increasingly sidelined Sunni and Kurdish rivals. The largest Sunni and Kurdish parties have long relied on Washington’s balancing role to retain a degree of political independence.

Impacts

• US interest in Iraq will likely decline as the troop presence is reduced in 2025.
• Future Kurdish and Sunni influence will depend on their internal unity, bilateral cooperation and search for international backing.
• Current over-spending of oil revenue on salaries for political purposes means Iraq faces a medium-term fiscal crunch.