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Prospects for the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea in 2018-22

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PROSPECTS 2018-22

Prospects for the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea in 2018-22.

Tehran will prioritise conservative consolidation

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IRAN

Many centrist and reformist candidates have been disqualified or declined to stand. This, together with the poor state of the economy and resentment over money spent abroad on…

Prospects for Russian foreign policy to end-2022

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PROSPECTS H2 2022

Prospects for Russian foreign policy to end-2022.

Austrian exit from Russian gas is far from assured

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AUSTRIA

Russia's share of Austrian gas imports was cut sharply in the wake of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine but has now returned to pre-war levels. Austria’s ability to accelerate…

Lebanese Hezbollah will avoid post-Soleimani US fight

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LEBANON

Mass popular protests forced the resignation of the previous coalition government and threatened Hezbollah's domestic political hegemony. This comes as the movement leads calls…

US-Iraqi offensive against Mosul may begin in mid-2015

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US/IRAQ

The United States has sent 3,000 'train and assist' troops to the country, and passed a 1.6 billion dollar assistance package in December 2014 to provide funding for the Iraqi…

Emirati foreign policy will draw strong criticism

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UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

The conflict has created tensions between the UAE’s leaders and Arab public opinion. Over the longer term, the country’s assertive foreign policy has also drawn criticism from its…

Syrian drug traffickers could shift routes to Libya

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LIBYA

Still, the narcotics trade provides a lucrative alternative revenue stream for government-aligned actors in Syria. These external pressures are therefore instead likely to prompt…

Latvia’s new three-party coalition will probably last

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LATVIA

The October 1 parliamentary election gave Krisjanis Karins, Latvia’s first prime minister to serve a full four-year term, a clear mandate to form a government. His New Unity (JV…

Russia will strengthen food security measures

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RUSSIA

State intervention has helped the production and export of food products to soar to record levels, with markets in Asia and the Middle East replacing those of Europe. These…