Syrian drug traffickers could shift routes to Libya

Significance

Still, the narcotics trade provides a lucrative alternative revenue stream for government-aligned actors in Syria. These external pressures are therefore instead likely to prompt a change in trafficking methods, partners and target markets.

Impacts

• Smuggling networks could still try to retransmit shipments across the Red Sea to meet demand from existing consumers in the Gulf.
• Smugglers could carve out new markets in North Africa and the Sahel.
• The disaster in the city of Derna caused by the September floods could distract authorities from countering drug smuggling.