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Russia adjusts strategy to evolving Libyan politics

Location:

RUSSIA/LIBYA

Haddad's visit, his second in four months, reflects Russia's outreach efforts with the GNU as Libya moves towards elections in December. Moscow is hedging its bets by also…

Threats of instability in Libya abound in 2024

Location:

LIBYA

While a 2020 ceasefire still holds, in the absence of new elections, the political landscape is significantly undermined by institutional rivalry. The country's fragmentation…

Prospects for West Africa in 2017

Location:

PROSPECTS 2017

Regionally, terrorism will remain a threat, particularly in the Sahel: much depends on whether Mali's decentralisation programme can keep armed groups engaged in the peace process.

Tunisia’s leader will disrupt diplomatic establishment

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TUNISIA

The Tunisian president's foreign policy agenda.

NATO’s Southern Hub will turn attention southwards

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NATO

NATO’s Middle Eastern and North African role.

Egypt will try to strengthen its position in Libya

Location:

LIBYA

This was a show of strength and a threat to Cairo, given the value of remittances sent home by the many Egyptian labourers in the east. The move reflected the undercurrent of…

Sahel smugglers move into gold and counterfeit drugs

Location:

SAHEL

Some traditional forms of trafficking, such as cocaine, are somewhat contracting, while new ones, for instance counterfeit medicines, are booming. None has disappeared; instead…

Turkey is adopting a more statesmanlike pose abroad

Location:

TURKEY

Turkey has brokered an agreement between Russia and Ukraine for resuming grain shipments through the Black Sea which, if it sticks, will be a substantial diplomatic win for Ankara…

Russia will employ new military unit across Africa

Location:

RUSSIA

Unlike the Wagner private military company (PMC), it is subordinated to the Russian state. The first confirmed deployment of African Corps forces is to Burkina Faso, where it will…

Middle East and North Africa water security in 2030

Location:

PROSPECTS 2030

Growing populations and climate change are putting additional pressure on the region’s water resources at a time when food security risks are rising in many of the MENA countries…