Threats of instability in Libya abound in 2024

Significance

While a 2020 ceasefire still holds, in the absence of new elections, the political landscape is significantly undermined by institutional rivalry. The country's fragmentation further hampers reconstruction and wider economic development.

Impacts

• Prospective foreign investors will be cautious about engaging in Libya, despite efforts to present the country as open for business.
• International energy companies already operating in Libya will likely face more blockades in 2024.
• The Tripoli-based government will be challenged by growing popular discontent across the country.