Turkey is adopting a more statesmanlike pose abroad

Significance

Turkey has brokered an agreement between Russia and Ukraine for resuming grain shipments through the Black Sea which, if it sticks, will be a substantial diplomatic win for Ankara and an example of how the Ukraine war has mainly played to Turkey’s advantage. Turkey is bolstering its geopolitical independence and by extension broadening its diplomatic room for manoeuvre.

Impacts

• Turkey’s intention to join the BRICS bloc is a clear sign that it wants to support forces counterbalancing the United States.
• Foreign policy could revert to confrontation if a global recession exacerbates Turkey’s economic problems ahead of elections.
• If President Erdogan needs to stir up conflict, Greece and Cyprus could be tempting, as bilateral relations have been neglected recently.