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China’s defence spending will remain stable

Location:

CHINA

Defence spending will account for 1.2% of GDP in 2024, having remained stable at around this figure for at least the past two decades. Nevertheless, outside estimates of China’s…

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

Location:

TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

Baku’s ties with the West will worsen

Location:

AZERBAIJAN

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke by telephone with President Ilham Aliyev, to raise "points of concern" in "enduring" US relations with Azerbaijan, the State…

Fading support for Ukraine will affect EU policymaking

Location:

EU

This suggests a growing disconnect within European society from the realities of the war and a decrease in the perceived threat posed by Russia. This outcome reflects heightened…

Russian annexation is bid to consolidate in Ukraine

Location:

UKRAINE

Despite or because of an unfavourable battlefield situation, Russia has pressed on with formally annexing the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. The Kremlin has…

UK and EU trade deals will be key priorities for India

Location:

INDIA

Earlier this month, he visited Germany, Denmark and France. India has drawn closer to both the United Kingdom and the EU in recent years amid shared concerns over China’s growing…

Turkey plans a short campaign against Syrian Kurds

Location:

TURKEY/SYRIA

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had signalled strongly that an incursion against the Kurds, whom he regards as terrorists linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey…

Turkey will shift focus to Kurdish guerrillas in Iraq

Location:

TURKEY

Since the breakdown of the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in July 2016, Erdogan’s policy of all-out violence has to outward appearances smashed the Kurds’…

Russian A2/AD systems will undermine NATO credibility

Location:

NATO

The emergence of Russian A2/AD zones in the High North, the Baltic Sea, the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea impacts NATO's ability to operate in key regions of interest to…

Pressure is likely to build on Erdogan’s opponents

Location:

TURKEY

Erdogan’s weakened position.