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Turkey will shift focus to Kurdish guerrillas in Iraq

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Significance

Since the breakdown of the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in July 2016, Erdogan’s policy of all-out violence has to outward appearances smashed the Kurds’ political nationalist ambitions in Turkey, but at an enormous cost in human lives, public expenditure and relations with neighbouring states in the region, as well as Turkey’s international reputation.

Impacts

  • Turkey’s economy may be hit heavily by US and EU sanctions.
  • Strained Turkey-US relations could break altogether.
  • Washington may remove atomic weaponry from the Incirlik base.
  • A strong Kurdish political presence will endure in northern Syria, with the PKK surviving mainly among exiles in Western cities.

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