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South Sudan’s Jonglei Canal project will be divisive

Location:

SOUTH SUDAN

The consultations followed major public protests after it emerged the government had in 2021 signed a secret deal with Cairo to restart the project, which would boost Egypt’s…

Somalia's emboldened president will remain embattled

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SOMALIA

President Mohammed Abdullahi ‘Farmajo’ appears emboldened after facing down a series of domestic political crises, including allegations of interference in the South-west state…

Guatemalan-US ties will continue to strengthen

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GUATEMALA/US

Support from Washington helped President Bernardo Arevalo take power in January, resetting relations after a period of strain under former President Alejandro Giammattei…

Regional shifts will not slow migration from Eritrea

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ERITREA

Outlook for out-migration from Eritrea.

South-east Asian haze will pose corporate challenges

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SOUTH-EAST ASIA

Although an annual regional problem, this year's haze is particularly severe, and implies growing risks for businesses and governance.

Biden’s team will try to reset engagement with Africa

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AFRICA/US

This may see a redefining of US-Africa policy compared to the Trump administration’s focus on competition with China, including: resolving questions surrounding the role for US…

Divisive politics will undermine Somalia’s security

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SOMALIA

The development has generated headlines due to Somalia’s push to replace Ethiopian troops with Egyptian forces. Less remarked upon but no less consequential is the fact that…

Uganda-Rwanda pact will not resolve political crisis

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RWANDA/UGANDA

Relations had been openly hostile -- and the border between the two countries closed -- since late February until Presidents Paul Kagame and Yoweri Museveni agreed on August 21 to…

Congo will use conflict minerals to discredit Rwanda

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CONGO-KINSHASA

This comes amid heightened scrutiny of Rwandan support to the M23 rebellion in eastern DRC and plays on long-standing claims that the illegal minerals trade is a major driver of…

Somalia and Turkey may struggle to realise oil deal

Location:

SOMALIA/TURKEY

The deal builds on the recent ten-year agreement on maritime defence cooperation. Somalia is believed to have significant onshore and offshore oil and gas potential. However…