Regional shifts will not slow migration from Eritrea

Subject

Outlook for out-migration from Eritrea.

Significance

A year after the surprise Ethiopia-Eritrea peace deal, much has changed in regional politics but there is little corresponding evidence of structural change within Eritrea. Consequently, hopes that high levels of out-migration might drop are fading, though migrants’ journeys do show a responsiveness to changing political agendas and opportunities in host countries.

Impacts

• Despite engagement with international actors on regional issues and human rights, Asmara will resist pressure for domestic reforms.
• Policy incoherence among European donors increases insecurity for migrants and may undermine longer-term European interests in the Horn.
• Initiatives that target smuggling will prove little more than palliative in a regional context riven by structural drivers of migration.