Divisive politics will undermine Somalia’s security

Significance

The development has generated headlines due to Somalia’s push to replace Ethiopian troops with Egyptian forces. Less remarked upon but no less consequential is the fact that stalled reforms mean Somalia remains heavily dependent on foreign security assistance.

Impacts

• Mogadishu’s clumsy pursuit of self-interested political projects will undercut the credibility it needs to negotiate security reforms.
• The AU and Somalia will have to address if and how Egypt can provide peacekeepers without fuelling tensions with pro-Ethiopian forces.
• Al-Shabaab will seek to exploit any security gaps that occur during the transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM.