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Prospects for Turkey in 2021

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PROSPECTS 2021

Fiscal and monetary stimuli and a policy-induced credit boom have combined with the broad normalisation of social life to contain COVID-19's impact on economic output. However…

Rabat’s maritime sector will help geopolitical aims

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MOROCCO

Existing conditions facilitate this: the country's open economy is highly dependent on foreign trade, it enjoys access to Mediterranean and Atlantic routes and ongoing…

Omani-Saudi-Emirati tensions may rise in the Gulf

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GULF STATES/OMAN

Former territorial tensions between Muscat and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) neighbours have receded in recent decades, allowing smoother cross-border links. However, the…

Middle East states will look to Europe’s gas market

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MIDDLE EAST/EUROPE

Eastern Mediterranean countries are scrambling to step up production and develop export channels for their gas to meet demand from Europe due to the Ukraine war. However, they…

Iran and Turkey will compartmentalise relations

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IRAN/TURKEY

As the new US administration seeks to re-engage with Iran, both Washington and Ankara have launched negotiations with Tehran's enemy Saudi Arabia. Iran and Turkey have major…

Turkey is adopting a more statesmanlike pose abroad

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TURKEY

Turkey has brokered an agreement between Russia and Ukraine for resuming grain shipments through the Black Sea which, if it sticks, will be a substantial diplomatic win for Ankara…

Oman will defend its interests on the Yemen border

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YEMEN/OMAN

Muscat is deeply concerned about the Yemen conflict's potential for cross-border and regional destabilisation. In recent months, the Saudi-led coalition backing the…

Turkey can transit only some more gas to Europe

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TURKEY

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe urgently needs new supplies. Turkey has been proposed as a transit route for gas from Middle Eastern and Caspian sources, but…

US sanctions may be serious for Turkish arms industry

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TURKEY

The 2021 presidential programme forecast domestic content in defence projects reaching 71% and arms exports tripling to USD6.2bn. However, that was before Washington banned export…

Momentum for negotiations on Western Sahara will fade

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WESTERN SAHARA

The status of efforts to resolve the Western Sahara conflict.