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Iraq’s Tal Afar offensive may spark infighting

Location:

IRAQ

The main assault from the south is led by the national army, with US air support. However, Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) are also participating to the east and…

ASEAN will pursue incremental engagement in Myanmar

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MYANMAR

Myanmar’s junta for the first time accepted the invitation to have a ‘non-political’ representative at high-level ASEAN meetings, standing since its exclusion from such events…

UN ERC will face global modernisation challenges

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INTERNATIONAL

UN emergency aid outlook ahead of the 2016 WHS summit.

Ukraine reconstruction needs money and tough oversight

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UKRAINE

The Lugano conference was an important launch-pad for efforts to mobilise international support. The Ukrainian government presented a Recovery and Development Plan, a lengthy but…

Myanmar opposition cannot defeat regime militarily

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MYANMAR

The NUG announced the formation of a People’s Defence Force (PDF) in May. It urges PDF combatants and ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) embroiled in long-running conflicts with…

Foreign scrutiny will grow of Cameroon’s Biya

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CAMEROON

In recent months, a heightened crackdown on political dissent, alongside a deteriorating security crisis in the predominantly anglophone Northwest and Southwest, has prompted Nagy…

Prospects for the Gulf states in 2019

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PROSPECTS 2019

Prospects for the Gulf states in 2019.

Legislative win strengthens Congo president’s hand

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CONGO-KINSHASA

Tshisekedi’s own Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) becomes parliament’s largest party with 69 seats, while main opposition contender Moise Katumbi’s Ensemble party…

Political rifts could undermine Ivory Coast growth

Location:

IVORY COAST

Strong GDP growth projections (8.5% in 2015, according to the World Bank) and positive sentiment towards President Alassane Ouattara's pro-business government will ensure strong…

Somali counter-insurgency will require political unity

Location:

SOMALIA

The raid is part of a major offensive launched by Somali and international forces in response to the October 14 attacks in Mogadishu, which killed over 350 people and injured over…