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NATO will integrate Ukraine gradually

Location:

NATO

Intensified cooperation with NATO, including arms transfers and intelligence sharing, has led to a significant upgrade of Ukraine’s military capabilities and capacity to fight…

Moscow’s control over Belarusian military will grow

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BELARUS

Moscow’s influence over Belarus has grown stronger since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when part of Russia’s invasion force entered from Belarus. The latest…

Moldova's separatist region in no rush for conflict

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MOLDOVA

The war in Ukraine has increased concerns about Moscow's intentions towards the separatist region of Transnistria, perhaps an overland offensive if Odessa is captured. Despite…

Kazakhstan will diversify security ties

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KAZAKHSTAN

With Russia focused on Ukraine, Kazakhstan has charted a path to reduce its military and security dependency on Moscow. This is apparent in Astana's changing attitudes towards…

Russia’s influence in Central Asia will wane

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CENTRAL ASIA

During his meeting with his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, Putin called the two countries “not just allies, but very close allies”. A month earlier, Putin had…

Strains of war are beginning to show in Russia

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RUSSIA

The invasion of Ukraine is causing strains in Russian society to show, with opposition to another mobilisation and rising appetite for peace talks. The economy is overheating in…

Russia will continue to prioritise the Arctic

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RUSSIA

The Arctic has long been viewed by Russia as a critical region for ensuring its national security and geopolitical interests. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the…

Outflanked Iran will follow Russia's lead on Karabakh

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IRAN/CAUCASUS

The conflict alarmed Tehran, which sent out mixed signals and found its offer of mediation ignored. Senior clerics voiced sympathy for Azerbaijan's cause, but this did not…

Russian leader blames mobilisation on 'Western threat'

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RUSSIA

The Kremlin previously resisted mobilisation because it knew this would be unpopular and claimed it was unnecessary. Now Putin has justified the move by accusing Western states of…

External moves will dictate scale of Caucasus conflict

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AZERBAIJAN/ARMENIA

The conflict has remained frozen since 1994 partly because external actors have exercised restraint. By contrast, Turkey is now giving Azerbaijan unqualified rhetorical support…