Outflanked Iran will follow Russia's lead on Karabakh

Significance

The conflict alarmed Tehran, which sent out mixed signals and found its offer of mediation ignored. Senior clerics voiced sympathy for Azerbaijan's cause, but this did not translate into substantive foreign policy change.

Impacts

• After Syria, Azerbaijan becomes a second zone of Iranian rivalry with Turkey and alignment with Russia.
• Tehran will remain alert to signs of domestic unrest and spillover effects from the conflict zone.
• There is little likelihood of substantial shifts in Iran's bilateral ties with Armenia and Azerbaijan.
• Territorial changes make a longer-term restoration of Armenian-Turkish ties theoretically possible; this would benefit regional trade.