Moscow’s control over Belarusian military will grow

Significance

Moscow’s influence over Belarus has grown stronger since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when part of Russia’s invasion force entered from Belarus. The latest iteration of Minsk’s military doctrine ensures Belarus will move closer to complete military integration with Russia.

Impacts

• Military integration with Russia will be buttressed by closer defence-industrial cooperation.
• Poland and the Baltic states will lobby for the increased deployment of NATO forces, including nuclear-capable systems, on their territory.
• Moscow will only use Belarusian units as a last resort due to concerns over the public response to their use in combat operations.