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US president’s UK visit is likely to be ‘placeholder’

Location:

US/UK

This comes as US foreign policy, especially towards China and Iran, is forcing some political tightrope-walking for US partners. It also comes as UK Prime Minister Theresa May…

Venezuela sanctions shift will not bring rapid gains

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VENEZUELA/US

Modification is expected to the tough sanctions which the Trump administration imposed on Venezuela’s oil sector. Washington has a geostrategic interest in peeling Venezuela away…

Astana partnership over Syria can survive tests

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SYRIA

Idlib is the location of a nominal de-escalation zone brokered by Russia and Turkey last September. Those countries, along with Iran, held a summit in the Kazakh capital…

Myanmar conflict will be protracted

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MYANMAR

Attacks by anti-junta People's Defence Forces (PDFs), which operate largely autonomously from each other, are taking an increasing toll on the army. Western powers are ramping up…

Constitutional reform will be Armenia's dividing line

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ARMENIA

President Serzh Sargsyan has proposed moving from a presidential to a parliamentary system of government. His embrace of constitutional reform at this stage stems from a new…

Belarus leader will emerge weaker from election win

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BELARUS

Of the four candidates left standing against Lukashenka, only Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya is making efforts to build support.

Politics may complicate Botswana diamond dispute

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BOTSWANA

Protracted negotiations over a new deal have been complicated by political tensions between President Mokgweetsi Masisi and his predecessor Ian Khama. Botswana produces almost…

Macedonia's Gruevski may survive latest scandal

Location:

MACEDONIA

Both had been in office since 2006, and Mijalkov was seen as indispensable for his control over the country. Along with Gruevski, both are heavily implicated in the wiretap…

Tunisia will seek new partners but not drop the old

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TUNISIA

Tunisia is an important partner for the EU and particularly Italy on migration and security issues. Recent developments beg the question whether Saied seeks to supplement his…

North Macedonia will clash with EU and neighbours

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NORTH MACEDONIA

The right-wing Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) topped the presidential and parliamentary polls, having…