Constitutional reform will be Armenia's dividing line

Significance

President Serzh Sargsyan has proposed moving from a presidential to a parliamentary system of government. His embrace of constitutional reform at this stage stems from a new degree of self-confidence, following his political neutralisation of the Prosperous Armenia (BH) party. The opposition Armenian National Congress (HAK) will oppose the reforms. The ARF and HAK moves are rooted in political weakness and desperation: it seems that ARF wants to return to the governing coalition, and HAK to regain lost credibility, especially after the defeat of its political partner, BH, whose leader, Gagik Tsarukian, has resigned.

Impacts

• The hobbling of Armenia's second-largest political party will reinforce the grip on power of the ruling party and the president.
• However, this could prove merely a tactical victory for Sargsyan against the political aspirations of his predecessor in office, Kocharyan.
• The threat to move against Tsarukian's business interests will mark a dangerous trend in the selective application of state power.