US president’s UK visit is likely to be ‘placeholder’

Significance

This comes as US foreign policy, especially towards China and Iran, is forcing some political tightrope-walking for US partners. It also comes as UK Prime Minister Theresa May prepares to resign as Conservative Party leader on June 7; her party will from June 11 pick a successor who will become prime minister.

Impacts

• A ‘no-deal’ Brexit would allow London to strike independent trade deals; Trump’s team is ready for talks.
• The next Conservative leader may well be pro-Brexit, potentially making a no-deal exit more likely.
• Both countries will emphasise security and defence ties to counter claims of diminished UK utility to Washington post-Brexit.
• London will likely seek a middle course in UK-China ties since it also eyes a UK-China trade deal.
• London may try to discourage Trump from using tariffs, but is unlikely to persuade him.