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Limits to Russia’s ties with Turkey will persist

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RUSSIA

Energy ties, already deep, have expanded since 2022 as part of a broader reorientation of Russian commerce away from the West. The similarly authoritarian leadership styles of…

Black Sea Fleet projects Russian power westwards

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RUSSIA

The growing power of the Russian navy in the Black Sea region.

Violence may evolve but not end in Russia's Chechnya

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RUSSIA

Kadyrov said he helped plan the operation in which Byutukayev and his five remaining followers died. It may be premature to declare an end to violence: attacks on security forces…

Prospects for US foreign policy in 2020

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PROSPECTS 2020

Prospects for US foreign policy in 2020.

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

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TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

Syrian Kurds face a possible loss of autonomy

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SYRIA

After the outbreak of civil war in 2011 and the rise of Islamic State (IS), the US-backed SDF managed to establish an autonomous administration in northeast Syria. However, it…

Turkey’s new cabinet will prioritise stability

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TURKEY

The much anticipated appointments of new ministers of finance, foreign affairs and interior -- replacing incumbents that in various ways no longer serve the president's interests…

Iran’s SCO inclusion will bring limited security gains

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IRAN

SCO membership will be Tehran’s first experience of a regional defence-security organisation since it withdrew from the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) in 1979. Iran’s defence…

Turkey-Europe economic and business ties will weaken

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TURKEY

That represented a 1.9-percentage-point (pp) rise in import share and a 0.4-pp fall in export share. Turkey's economic and commercial ties with Europe (EU and non-EU) are strong…

Syria’s sovereignty push will depend on Arab ties

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SYRIA

The letter specified that aid must be coordinated with Damascus and also pushed for donors to fulfil their commitments and support refugee return -- a key issue for Arab…