Violence may evolve but not end in Russia's Chechnya

Significance

Kadyrov said he helped plan the operation in which Byutukayev and his five remaining followers died. It may be premature to declare an end to violence: attacks on security forces have increased since June 2020, and most seem to have been perpetrated by locals with no previous jihadist affiliation.

Impacts

• Kadyrov will use the successful operation as proof he is indispensable to Moscow.
• He will use intimidation to pressure Chechens not to participate in anti-government protests elsewhere in Russia.
• Neighbouring Dagestan's new leader is the second outsider appointed by Moscow, reflecting a different approach to political management.