Turkey-Europe economic and business ties will weaken

Significance

That represented a 1.9-percentage-point (pp) rise in import share and a 0.4-pp fall in export share. Turkey's economic and commercial ties with Europe (EU and non-EU) are strong on a number of axes, including trade, capital flows and tourism. However, political ties are less strong and official financing is less important.

Impacts

• European norms will continue to exert an influence on the financial and business environment in Turkey.
• A longer-term alternative to Europe will only emerge if more comprehensive relations are developed with China and/or other Asian countries.
• Middle East and CIS residents will dominate the foreign purchases of real estate.
• Remittances from Turkish migrants living in Europe will not be an important source of finance for Ankara.