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Prospects for Ukraine to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

This perception can only increase. Essentially, the question is whether Ukraine will be able to make sufficient military gains in order to avoid having to fight -- with all the…

Prospects for fossil fuels in 2018

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PROSPECTS 2018

US shale is now the swing provider in global oil markets and rising prices have encouraged production increases. With prices for future delivery lower than spot rates, buyers are…

Turkey will upgrade Ukraine partnership cautiously

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UKRAINE/TURKEY

The relationship is shaped and moderated by Turkey's mix of cooperation and competition with Moscow. Ankara will not use Ukraine as an arena for challenging Russia openly, but its…

Russia risks mission creep as Syrian rebels dig in

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SYRIA

Since the start of Russian airstrikes last September, the rebels have suffered their largest territorial loss to the regime in two years. The new counter-insurgent strategy…

Venezuela talks continue but amid steep obstacles

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VENEZUELA

While there is moderate optimism among European, Latin American and Caribbean countries about a negotiated solution to Venezuela’s crisis, the United States remains sceptical. The…

US leadership could firm EU wobbling on Ukraine

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EU

Eastern EU member-states, from the Baltics to the Black Sea, are united in applying existing sanctions against Russia, with only Hungary overtly weakening political unity on the…

Syrian civil war heads for escalation

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SYRIA

A recent upsurge in fighting has undermined the Geneva talks which the truce was supposed to facilitate. The collapse of the talks and truce could pave the way to a regime…

Prospects for Venezuela to end-2019

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PROSPECTS H2 2019

Prospects for Venezuela to end-2019.

Putin’s visit to China reveals economic limits

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RUSSIA

Both sides vowed to coordinate their responses to what they describe as a US-led policy ‘dual containment’ directed at Moscow and Beijing, strengthening the impression of a united…

Baku will resist a quick peace deal with Armenia

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ARMENIA

The latest round of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Geneva on March 22 ended without any concrete progress on negotiations over a bilateral peace agreement. The meeting…