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Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Karabakh is settled

Location:

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

The region’s Armenian majority population has fled; displaced Azerbaijanis have returned to Karabakh and formerly occupied surrounding districts. Russia refused to support its…

War of attrition in Ukraine is unlikely to end soon

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UKRAINE

After Ukraine’s summer counter-offensive failed to achieve any of its major objectives, Russia has regained the initiative in the ground war. It captured the frontline fortress…

Islamic State may see a limited Iraq-Syria resurgence

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IRAQ/SYRIA

Enabled in part by responses to the pandemic, 2020 saw a temporary surge in IS assaults across rural areas of Iraq and Syria. Attacks have also again become more coordinated and…

War threatens Russia’s position as arms exporter

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RUSSIA

A combination of the threat of US sanctions, shifting patterns of demand on international markets, and the growing demands of Russia’s own military has caused arms exports to…

Maritime security risks may increase in the Gulf

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GULF STATES

The statement comes on the back of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announcing on May 31 that it withdrew two months ago from the Combined Maritime Forces, a US-led maritime…

Ukrainian public will expect war to end in victory

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UKRAINE

The Russian invasion has changed the lives of millions of Ukrainians, forcing many to seek refuge abroad or move to a safer place within the country. However, the war has pushed…

China’s army will step up reform efforts

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CHINA

This was consistent with a long-running emphasis on preparing the PLA for future warfare that involves new types of informational and technological dynamics. One effect will be to…

Ukraine war will boost East European arms business

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EASTERN EUROPE

Ukraine, the United States and its allies are redoubling efforts to boost arms and ammunition supplies to Kyiv’s armed forces. However, the contribution of the Central-East…

Israeli-Palestinian war will break old assumptions

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ISRAEL/PALESTINIANS

It occupied towns and army installations, killing and kidnapping hundreds and fighting pitched battles with Israeli forces. Israel formally declared war on October 8, signalling…

Obama's Vietnam visit may increase regional friction

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US/VIETNAM

The headline announcement on May 23 was Washington's complete lifting of the ban on US weapons exports to Vietnam, although this overshadowed the longer-term strengthening of ties.