Maritime security risks may increase in the Gulf

Significance

The statement comes on the back of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announcing on May 31 that it withdrew two months ago from the Combined Maritime Forces, a US-led maritime coalition, reflecting a fracture within the grouping formed to protect seaborne trade.

Impacts

• The CMF will likely increase transits of the Strait of Hormuz to signal deterrence capabilities to Iran.
• Gulf Arab countries could leverage deepening ties with China to extract firmer security guarantees from the United States.
• Iran’s seizure of tankers may not produce an abrupt US escalation, but US-linked tankers may be more closely escorted.
• A failure to restore a ceasefire in Yemen will enable continued drugs and weapons smuggling.