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Prospects for the EU in 2017

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PROSPECTS 2017

Prospects for the EU in 2017.

EU’s new rule of law mechanism will lack teeth

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EU

The new mechanism is unambitious in its scope, aiming mainly at holding various formats of “dialogue”, and unclear about how to achieve its goals.

EU integration could provide a way to sanction Hungary

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HUNGARY/EU

The EU treaty’s Article 7 may be invoked in response to concerns about the state of democracy, fundamental rights and the rule of law in a member state. Yesterday's decision by…

Warsaw’s latest steps could take Poland out of EU

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POLAND/EU

Warsaw’s Constitutional Tribunal (KT) has challenged the European legal order in Poland and other member states, regarding EU treaties’ compliance with the national constitution…

Hungarian Fidesz illiberalism will defy EU criticism

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HUNGARY

The EP vote could in theory lead to sanctions under Article 7 of the EU Treaty (TEU). An 'illiberal state' has emerged in Hungary since 2010, profoundly and durably modifying the…

EU’s Visegrad Four will not continue in current format

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EU

Poland may have resolved its rule-of-law dispute with the EU, whereas part of Hungary’s ‘cohesion’ funds are frozen. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has driven a wedge between Poland…

Bosnian Serbs are unlikely to seek independence yet

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BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA

The move followed changes to the Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) election law, aimed at enhancing electoral transparency, imposed by High Representative Christian Schmidt. RS President…

Northern Kosovo will require international security

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KOSOVO

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic urged Kosovo Serbs to remove roadblocks on December 28, ending nearly three weeks of protests. Despite EU-facilitated dialogue geared towards a…

Ukraine war impedes crackdown on crypto cybercrime

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INTERNATIONAL

There were signs of possible progress in 2021, and even some cooperation from Moscow -- REvil ransomware gang members were arrested in early 2022. However, that cooperation has…

Populism will fuel Uganda’s anti-homosexuality bill

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UGANDA

The vote confirms the criminalisation of same-sex sexual activities, and expands the range of proscribed behaviour, including merely identifying as homosexual, while strengthening…