Bosnian Serbs are unlikely to seek independence yet

Significance

The move followed changes to the Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) election law, aimed at enhancing electoral transparency, imposed by High Representative Christian Schmidt. RS President Milorad Dodik has backtracked from suggestions that the entity will not participate in BiH’s local elections in October.

Impacts

• The High Representative may declare the law void, but the RS leadership would ignore that.
• Dodik could try to keep the RS out of the general elections due in 2026.
• US sanctions will have an increasingly heavy impact on the RS and its leadership this year.
• Western pressure on Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic to facilitate a de-escalation will mount.