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A Gulf human rights pushback worsens EU dilemmas

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GULF STATES/EU

Riyadh reacted to Ottawa’s criticism of the arrests by breaking diplomatic ties and immediately withdrawing investments, trade, students and medical patients, demanding support…

Middle East outlook is poised on US election outcome

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MIDDLE EAST/US

The two candidates differ on the timing, scope and scale of US regional engagement. Biden was a strong critic of the policy changes Trump introduced regarding the 2015 Iran…

North Korea may goad South Korea into limited conflict

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NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

Pyongyang claims to have tested a new nuclear-capable underwater drone -- Seoul is sceptical -- and North Korea’s foreign minister has visited Moscow. South Korean President Yoon…

China’s defence spending will remain stable

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CHINA

Defence spending will account for 1.2% of GDP in 2024, having remained stable at around this figure for at least the past two decades. Nevertheless, outside estimates of China’s…

US partnership will strengthen Vietnam’s balancing act

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VIETNAM

The United States thereby joined the small list of countries -- which includes China -- to have this level of diplomatic relations with Vietnam. Hanoi and Washington announced…

Myanmar’s Russia ties will grow stronger

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MYANMAR

Separately, Russian arms transfers to Naypyidaw are fuelling the conflict between the junta and its armed opponents. Among the countries that remain close to Myanmar, Russia and…

Slovak-Hungarian entente will not affect Western unity

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SLOVAKIA

The programme includes halting official military aid to Ukraine, as incoming Prime Minister Robert Fico promised during the election campaign. Recent elections in Central Europe…

Moscow can afford the war in Ukraine

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RUSSIA

Hopes that sanctions and a sclerotic economy will hinder Russia’s war effort are likely to prove misplaced. Careful management of the budget and healthy oil revenues mean that the…

US-Cypriot warming may restart Turkish gas prospecting

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CYPRUS

This is the most significant upgrade in US-Cyprus relations since the ban was imposed in 1987, and marks a definitive shift for Cyprus from Russia to the West. However, the…

Russia sanctions relief could cost Trump with Congress

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RUSSIA/US

Outlook for US sanctions on Russia.