North Korea may goad South Korea into limited conflict

Significance

Pyongyang claims to have tested a new nuclear-capable underwater drone -- Seoul is sceptical -- and North Korea’s foreign minister has visited Moscow. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol pledges strong retaliation if the North provokes. The Seoul stock market’s weak performance this year partly reflects rising geopolitical tensions.

Impacts

• The North’s disavowal of reunification is a seismic change domestically; Kim is openly rejecting his father’s and grandfather’s legacy.
• Pyongyang’s routinely vocal hostility renders it hard to signal change, with Kim now amending North Korea’s constitution to make his point.
• Seoul’s rhetoric plus Yoon’s pledge to retaliate to any provocation risks exacerbating tensions rather than defusing them.
• Kim’s cleaving to Russia and China does not create a troika; Moscow and Beijing will not let Kim distract from strategic goals elsewhere.