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Trump leaves field to Putin and Erdogan in Syria

Location:

TURKEY/US/RUSSIA/SYRIA

The team includes the defence and foreign ministers, the intelligence chief and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s special adviser Ibrahim Kalin. They will visit Washington later…

Any Colombian ‘peace dividend’ will be muted in 2017

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COLOMBIA

The negotiations follow the ratification of a revised peace deal with the country’s largest rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) on November 30. After…

Libyan oil exports will remain hostage to conflict

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LIBYA

In January, eastern-based military leader Khalifa Haftar forced the closure of oil export terminals in the Gulf of Sirte, causing oil production and exports to plummet by 80-90%…

Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2020

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PROSPECTS 2020

Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2020.

Libya’s transition risks reverting to frozen conflict

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LIBYA

Moves are already underway that empower eastern actors to dominate the Libyan state. Appendages to Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) will increasingly govern the…

Iraqi Kurdish election divisions will erode autonomy

Location:

IRAQ

Tensions have risen over the past year between the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), due to disagreements over the electoral law…

Central African Republic peace deal needs executing

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CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

The accord, the full contents of which are still not public, differs from previous deals in that it follows the first direct talks between the parties and because the government…

Ukraine clashes highlight deadlocked peace process

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UKRAINE

The surge in fighting that started on January 29 was the worst since early 2015, but seems to have died down for now. The causes are unclear, although it began a day after the…

Colombia’s peace deal may face dangerous delays

Location:

COLOMBIA

The move follows emergency negotiations in the aftermath of the public’s shock rejection of the original deal on October 2. While both the Senate and the House of Representatives…

Ukraine will seek a louder voice in adverse conditions

Location:

UKRAINE

Just as Zelensky's July 2019 phone call with then President Donald Trump was fading from memory, Biden's green light for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, in a deal with…