Libyan oil exports will remain hostage to conflict

Significance

In January, eastern-based military leader Khalifa Haftar forced the closure of oil export terminals in the Gulf of Sirte, causing oil production and exports to plummet by 80-90%. The retreat of Haftar’s forces from western Libya as units supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) advance towards Sirte raises questions about how control of the hydrocarbons sector will evolve.

Impacts

• Some increases in oil exports are likely, but they may be short-lived.
• If oil exports do not rise this year, fears of a budget crisis will grow.
• The NOC is unlikely to support the GNA trying to use more oil sector promises to mobilise international support, for example from Turkey.