To read the full version of this content please select one of the options below:

Libyan oil exports will remain hostage to conflict

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Significance

In January, eastern-based military leader Khalifa Haftar forced the closure of oil export terminals in the Gulf of Sirte, causing oil production and exports to plummet by 80-90%. The retreat of Haftar’s forces from western Libya as units supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) advance towards Sirte raises questions about how control of the hydrocarbons sector will evolve.

Impacts

  • Some increases in oil exports are likely, but they may be short-lived.
  • If oil exports do not rise this year, fears of a budget crisis will grow.
  • The NOC is unlikely to support the GNA trying to use more oil sector promises to mobilise international support, for example from Turkey.
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica
Stay up to date
Sign up to the Expert Daily Briefings email alert and receive up-to-the-minute analysis of global events as they happen.
*If your university does not have access to Expert Briefings, visit our information page to find out more.