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Libya’s transition risks reverting to frozen conflict

Friday, August 13, 2021

Significance

Moves are already underway that empower eastern actors to dominate the Libyan state. Appendages to Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) will increasingly govern the administration of eastern Libya (Cyrenaica), and the political head will be a de facto executive comprised of Saleh and key MPs.

Impacts

  • A new parallel government in the east could lead to an oil embargo from installations under its control.
  • Saleh could empower tribal forces within local administration and foreign-contracted projects in the east.
  • As infrastructure degrades, discontent will rise and an election delay could trigger popular protests.

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