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Ethiopia’s Amhara conflict may be protracted

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ETHIOPIA

Following an extension of the state of emergency in February, new army offensives, including around the regional capital, Bahir Dar, have intensified the conflict. Reports of…

Dinar ban will damage EU-led Kosovo-Serbia dialogue

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KOSOVO

A Central Bank regulation reaffirming the euro as sole legal tender has alarmed Kosovo’s Serbs who see it as a direct threat to their existence and is jeopardising already complex…

Myanmar junta will lose further ground in near term

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MYANMAR

The resistance to the junta, including People’s Defence Forces aligned with the anti-junta National Unity Government (NUG) as well as ethnic armed organisations long pitted…

Gaza overspill is a possible risk to Balkan security

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BALKANS

After an incident in late September that left one Kosovar police officer and three Serbian gunmen dead, the dispute over Kosovo’s sovereignty has become more dangerous, prompting…

Puntland crisis underscores Somali election dilemmas

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SOMALIA

Deni and the Puntland electoral commission seek to hold direct elections, while the opposition demand a return to a clan-based electoral system. Meanwhile, with the election…

Kosovo will struggle to mend ties with the West

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KOSOVO

In contrast, just days earlier, the Council of Europe (CoE) dropped a vote on Kosovo’s membership of the organisation from its meeting agenda after key states advanced additional…

Abyei conflict may trigger wider unrest in South Sudan

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SOUTH SUDAN

Government attempts to stop the clashes have been ineffective, and both sides have used Nuer forces from elsewhere in South Sudan, risking a broadening conflict.

Islamic State poses limited threat in Afghanistan

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AFGHANISTAN

Some observers have suggested that this is a sign of an IS-K resurgence. The ruling Taliban have tried hard since their takeover in 2021 to suppress the group, a long-standing…

Ethnic factors will shape Afghan Taliban factionalism

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AFGHANISTAN

The trip came as a surprise, as he is a reclusive individual who usually remains in his base in the south-western Kandahar province. Haibatullah met prominent Taliban figures…

Stability in Ethiopia’s Benishangul-Gumuz may not last

Location:

ETHIOPIA

This complements earlier agreements with the two groups in late 2022 that not all factions had subscribed to. Consequently, there is currently no active rebellion in this…