Ethnic factors will shape Afghan Taliban factionalism

Significance

The trip came as a surprise, as he is a reclusive individual who usually remains in his base in the south-western Kandahar province. Haibatullah met prominent Taliban figures belonging to the ethnic Tajik and Uzbek communities, which are heavily concentrated in northern provinces. The Taliban are a mainly ethnic Pashtun group.

Impacts

• Friction between Haibatullah and his rivals within the Taliban will intensify.
• Central Asian states and Russia will observe the situation in the north especially carefully, wary of instability in the region.
• A growing perception of discrimination against Tajiks and Uzbeks could complicate relations with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.