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Politics will drive growth in trade de-dollarisation

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INTERNATIONAL

A move away from the US dollar is gaining momentum, driven by the West’s use of economic sanctions, high levels of sovereign debt and a desire to de-link monetary policy from the…

Dinar ban will damage EU-led Kosovo-Serbia dialogue

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KOSOVO

A Central Bank regulation reaffirming the euro as sole legal tender has alarmed Kosovo’s Serbs who see it as a direct threat to their existence and is jeopardising already complex…

Recovery of Russian consumption is likely to moderate

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RUSSIA

Strong household demand, now restored to pre-war levels, mitigated the impact on GDP of falling exports last year. The consumer market is profoundly changed, with new brands from…

Iran is approaching the limits of its oil expansion

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IRAN

Iran’s increasingly skilled sanctions evasion (aided by less intense US enforcement) has made it the second-largest contributor to higher global oil output over the past year…

Russia’s ties with Iran will grow stronger

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RUSSIA

War, sanctions and a mutual desire to overturn US-led regional security orders have pushed Moscow and Tehran closer together. Moscow desires to turn what has historically been a…

Georgia risks becoming Russian sanctions-evasion haven

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GEORGIA/RUSSIA

Tbilisi has authorised flights by two smaller Russian airlines, exacerbating fears of the potential for sanctions evasion. That follows the easing of Russia’s visa regime for…

Parallel imports continue to support Russia’s economy

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RUSSIA

Parallel imports have played a crucial role in securing the supply of goods for the Russian economy. The creation and management of parallel import channels is now an important…

Syria’s mild economic recovery faces major constraints

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SYRIA

The economy is not showing serious ill effects from the overspill of the conflict in Gaza or recent aid cuts. The government may even have derived some additional financial…

Bangladesh faces stormy lead-up to elections

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BANGLADESH

The next general election is expected in January. The health of BNP leader Khaleda Zia, under house arrest, is reportedly deteriorating seriously. Separately, the United States…

Bosnian Serbs are unlikely to seek independence yet

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BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA

The move followed changes to the Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) election law, aimed at enhancing electoral transparency, imposed by High Representative Christian Schmidt. RS President…