Georgia risks becoming Russian sanctions-evasion haven

Significance

Tbilisi has authorised flights by two smaller Russian airlines, exacerbating fears of the potential for sanctions evasion. That follows the easing of Russia’s visa regime for Georgians on May 10, together with Moscow’s decision to lift its ban on direct airline flights between the two countries, damaging Georgia’s ties with the West.

Impacts

• Tbilisi-Moscow ties will continue to improve, though Georgia’s internal political situation will serve as a major hindrance.
• Georgia-EU ties will remain sour after Brussels’s decision not to grant candidate status in June 2022.
• To shore up its shaky position in the South Caucasus the EU will increase efforts to play a decisive role in Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks.
• Turkey-Georgia economic ties will increase as Georgia’s role as a connector between Russia and Turkey grows.
• Russia and Iran will likely complete the Rasht-Astara railway, a major element of the International North-South Transport Corridor.