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War threatens lasting risks for Germany’s economy

Location:

GERMANY

The impact of the war in Ukraine, and Western sanctions on Russia, is already harming the economy through higher energy and consumer prices plus trade disruption. The German…

Extensive ECB response will reduce depth of recession

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INTERNATIONAL

Far from being nonplussed by Germany’s Constitutional Court ruling of May 5 that the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) may be illegal, it doubled the programme on June…

Ukraine crisis will bring heavy costs for Europe

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EU

The sanctions amount to a middle-of-the-road approach: leaders agreed to keep Russia in the SWIFT payment system and avoid targeting Russian energy exports. They will not cause…

Germany is close to entering a recession

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GERMANY

Berlin believes that supply via the pipeline will decline significantly or end completely after the maintenance work. Consumer confidence in July reached an historic low…

Slowdown may induce Czech loosening despite inflation

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CZECH REPUBLIC

Domestic inflationary pressures have intensified, with headline inflation significantly above the CNB’s 2% target. However, the sharp deterioration in the external environment…

Russia likely to scale down but not end EU gas supply

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RUSSIA

Moscow blames technical delays but this is only the latest in a series of supply slowdowns that EU leaders believe are entirely political: a means of punishing European states for…

Russian gas cut would hurt EU’s eastern members most

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EASTERN EUROPE

Energy exports have been Russia’s potent weapon against Europe since the Ukraine war began. When NS1 closed for maintenance in July, fears mounted that flows would not resume…

Norway outage exposes Europe’s gas vulnerability

Location:

EUROPE

The price reaction reflects Europe’s increased dependence on the smooth running of the Norwegian gas export system in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While likely to be…

Europe is facing growing competition in wind power

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EUROPE

It is a successful long-term growth industry, but competition is increasing from Chinese suppliers in both European and external markets. Market mechanisms are squeezing…

Prospects for the global economy to end-2019

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PROSPECTS H2 2019

Prospects for the global economy to end-2019.