Russia likely to scale down but not end EU gas supply

Significance

Moscow blames technical delays but this is only the latest in a series of supply slowdowns that EU leaders believe are entirely political: a means of punishing European states for backing Ukraine and blackmailing them into submission.

Impacts

• If Russian gas supply remains heavily depressed, the EU will be unable to fill gas storage to the planned 80% by November.
• A significant reduction in Russian gas supplies will put the EU's energy transition plan in jeopardy.
• A temporary resumption in coal-fired generation should not undermine the EU's climate goals.