Russian gas cut would hurt EU’s eastern members most

Significance

Energy exports have been Russia’s potent weapon against Europe since the Ukraine war began. When NS1 closed for maintenance in July, fears mounted that flows would not resume. Even its reduced resumption is positive for the economy of the EU and particularly the highly reliant Czech-Hungarian-Slovak-Polish ‘Visegrad 4’ group (V4).

Impacts

• Russia will continue using gas as a means to assert power, paralyse EU decision-making and undermine bloc unity.
• The highly vulnerable V4 group will remain Russia’s entry point for sowing discord and weakening the bloc.
• EU fossil-fuel dependence leaves it economically and politically exposed and reduces its capacity to help Ukraine.
• Political and social unrest could ensue if, in a sudden NS1 shutdown, gas reserves were diverted from V4 to Germany.