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Evaluating warfighter lethality is a critical aspect of military performance. Raw metrics such as marksmanship speed and accuracy can provide some insight, yet interpreting subtle differences can be challenging. For example, is a speed difference of 300 milliseconds more important than a 10% accuracy difference on the same drill? Marksmanship evaluations must have objective methods to differentiate between critical factors while maintaining a holistic view of human performance.

Monte Carlo simulations are one method to circumvent speed/accuracy trade-offs within marksmanship evaluations. They can accommodate both speed and accuracy implications simultaneously without needing to hold one constant for the sake of the other. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations can incorporate variability as a key element of performance. This approach thus allows analysts to determine consistency of performance expectations when projecting future outcomes.

The review divides outcomes into both theoretical overview and practical implication sections. Each aspect of the Monte Carlo simulation can be addressed separately, reviewed and then incorporated as a potential component of small arms combat modeling. This application allows for new human performance practitioners to more quickly adopt the method for different applications.

Performance implications are often presented as inferential statistics. By using the Monte Carlo simulations, practitioners can present outcomes in terms of lethality. This method should help convey the impact of any marksmanship evaluation to senior leadership better than current inferential statistics, such as effect size measures.

Marksmanship data is a staple of military and law enforcement evaluations. This ubiquitous nature creates a critical need to use all relevant information and to convey outcomes in a meaningful way for the end users. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate how simple simulation techniques can improve interpretations of marksmanship data.

This study uses three simulations to demonstrate the advantages of small arms combat modeling, including (1) the benefits of incorporating a Markov Chain into Monte Carlo shooting simulations; (2) how small arms combat modeling is superior to point-based evaluations; and (3) why continuous-time chains better capture performance than discrete-time chains.

The proposed method reduces ambiguity in low-accuracy scenarios while also incorporating a more holistic view of performance as outcomes simultaneously incorporate speed and accuracy rather than holding one constant.

This process determines the probability of winning an engagement against a given opponent while circumventing arbitrary discussions of speed and accuracy trade-offs. Someone wins 70% of combat engagements against a given opponent rather than scoring 15 more points. Moreover, risk exposure is quantified by determining the likely casualties suffered to achieve victory. This combination makes the practical consequences of human performance differences tangible to the end users. Taken together, this approach advances the operations research analyses of squad-level combat engagements.

For more than a century, marksmanship evaluations have used point-based systems to classify shooters. However, these scoring methods were developed for competitive integrity rather than lethality as points do not adequately capture combat capabilities. The proposed method thus represents a major shift in the marksmanship scoring paradigm.

Rapid sensitivity analysis and near-optimal decision-making in contested environments are valuable requirements when providing military logistics support. Port of debarkation denial motivates maneuver from strategic operational locations, further complicating logistics support. Simulations enable rapid concept design, experiment and testing that meet these complicated logistic support demands. However, simulation model analyses are time consuming as output data complexity grows with simulation input. This paper proposes a methodology that leverages the benefits of simulation-based insight and the computational speed of approximate dynamic programming (ADP).

This paper describes a simulated contested logistics environment and demonstrates how output data informs the parameters required for the ADP dialect of reinforcement learning (aka Q-learning). Q-learning output includes a near-optimal policy that prescribes decisions for each state modeled in the simulation. This paper's methods conform to DoD simulation modeling practices complemented with AI-enabled decision-making.

This study demonstrates simulation output data as a means of state–space reduction to mitigate the curse of dimensionality. Furthermore, massive amounts of simulation output data become unwieldy. This work demonstrates how Q-learning parameters reflect simulation inputs so that simulation model behavior can compare to near-optimal policies.

Fast computation is attractive for sensitivity analysis while divorcing evaluation from scenario-based limitations. The United States military is eager to embrace emerging AI analytic techniques to inform decision-making but is hesitant to abandon simulation modeling. This paper proposes Q-learning as an aid to overcome cognitive limitations in a way that satisfies the desire to wield AI-enabled decision-making combined with modeling and simulation.

The paper aims to estimates the limitations of a forced distribution performance appraisal system in identifying the highest performing individuals within an organization. Traditionally, manpower modeling allows organizations to develop plans that meet future human resource requirements by modeling the flow of personnel within an organization. The aim is to quantify the limitations of a performance appraisal system in identifying the best-qualified individuals to fill future requirements.

This paper describes an exploratory study using discrete event simulation based on the assignment, evaluation and promotion history of over 2,500 officers in the US Army. The obtained data provide a basis for estimating simulation inputs that include system structure, system dynamics, human behavior and policy constraints. The simulation approach facilitates modeling officers who receive evaluations as they move throughout the system over time.

The paper provides insights into the effect of system structure and system dynamics on the evaluation outcome of employees. It suggests that decreasing the number of a rater’s subordinates has a significant effect on the accuracy of performance appraisals. However, increasing the amount of time individuals spend on each assignment has little effect on system accuracy.

This research allows an organization’s leadership to evaluate the possible consequences associated with evaluation policy prior to policy implementation.

This work advances a framework in assessing the effect of system dynamics and structure, and the extent to which they limit or enhance the accuracy of an organization’s forced distribution performance appraisal system.

The purpose of this research is to explore the utility of autonomous transport across two independent airframe maintenance operations at a single location.

This study leveraged discrete event simulation that encompassed real-world conditions on a United States Air Force flight line. Though the Theory of Constraints (TOC) lens, a high-demand, human-controlled delivery asset is analyzed and the impact of introducing an autonomous rover delivery vehicle is assessed. The authors’ simulations explored varying numbers and networks of rovers as alternative sources of delivery and evaluated these resources’ impact against current flight line operations.

This research indicates that the addition of five autonomous rovers can significantly reduce daily expediter delivery tasks, which results in additional expertise necessary to manage and execute flight line operations. The authors assert that this relief would translate into enhancements in aircraft mission capable rates, which could increase overall transport capacity and cascade into faster cargo delivery times, systemwide. By extension, the authors suggest overall inventory management could be improved through reduction in transportation shipping time variance, which enhances the Department of Defense’s overall supply chain resilience posture.

When compared against existing practices, this novel research provides insight into actual flight line movement and the potential benefits of an alternative autonomous delivery system. Additionally, the research measures the potential savings in the workforce and vehicle use that exceeds the cost of the rovers and their employment.

An integrated queueing network focused on container storage/retrieval operations occurring on the yard of a transshipment hub is proposed. The purpose of the network is to support decisions related to the organization of the yard area, while also accounting for operations policies and times on the quay.

A discrete-event simulation model is used to reproduce container handling on both the quay and yard areas, along with the transfer operations between the two. The resulting times, properly estimated by the simulation output, are fed to a simpler queueing network amenable to solution via algorithms based on mean value analysis (MVA) for product-form networks.

Numerical results justify the proposed approach for getting a fast, yet accurate analytical solution that allows carrying out performance evaluation with respect to both organizational policies and operations management on the yard area.

Practically, the expected performance measures on the yard subsystem can be obtained avoiding additional time-expensive simulation experiments on the entire detailed model.

As a major takeaway, deepening the MVA for generally distributed service times has proven to produce reliable estimations on expected values for both user- and system-oriented performance metrics.

To recover the growing deficit between American and near-peer mobile artillery ranges, the US Army is exploring the use of the M982 Excalibur munition, a family of long-range precision projectiles. This paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of the M982 in comparison to the M795 and M549A1 projectiles to further the understanding of what this new asset contributes.

Based upon doctrinal scenarios for target destruction, a statistical analysis is performed using Monte Carlo simulation to identify a likely probability of kill ratio for the M982. A values-based hierarchical modeling approach is then used to differentiate the M982 from similar-type projectiles quantitatively in terms of several different attributes. Finally, sensitivity analyzes are presented for each of the value attributes, to identify areas where measures may lack robustness in precision.

Based upon a set of seven value measures, such as maximum range, effective range, the expected number of rounds to destroy a target, and the unit cost of a munition, the M982 1a-2 was found to be best suited for engaging point and small area targets. It is noted, however, that the M795 and M549A1 projectiles are likely better munition options for large area targets. Hence, an integrated targeting plan may best optimize the force’s weapon systems against a near-peer adversary.

The findings provide initial evidence that doctrinal adjustments in how the Army uses its artillery systems may be beneficial in facing near-peer adversaries. In addition, the values-based modeling approach offered in this research provides a framework for which similar technological advances may be examined.

This study aims to explore the viability of using C-17 reduced-engine taxi procedures from a cost savings and capability perspective.

This study model expected engine fuel flow based on the number of operational engines, aircraft gross weight (GW) and average aircraft groundspeed. Using this model, the research executes a cost savings simulation estimating the expected annual savings produced by the proposed taxi methodology. Operational and safety risks are also considered.

The results indicate that significant fuel and costs savings are available via the employment of reduced-engine taxi procedures. On an annual basis, the mobility air force has the capacity to save approximately 1.18 million gallons of jet fuel per year ($2.66m in annual fuel costs at current rates) without significant risk to operations. The two-engine taxi methodology has the ability to generate capable taxi thrust for a maximum GW C-17 with nearly zero risks.

This research was limited to C-17 procedures and efficiency improvements specifically, although it suggests that other military aircraft could benefit from these findings as is evident in the commercial airline industry.

This research recommends coordination with the original equipment manufacturer to rework checklists and flight manuals, development of a fleet-wide training program and evaluation of future aircraft recapitalization requirements intended to exploit and maximize aircraft surface operation savings.

If implemented, the proposed changes would benefit the society as government resources could be spent elsewhere and the impact on the environment would be reduced. This research conducted a rigorous analysis of the suitability of implementing a civilian airline’s best practice into US Air Force operations.

Students completing their tertiary education at a university may be equipped with theoretical knowledge with little to no practical experience. In order to bridge this gap in practical skills, a computer simulation was developed based on the e-filing platform of the South African Revenue Services (SARS). Students were exposed to this self-developed computer simulation to answer the question: to what extent will the e-filing simulation improve students' confidence to practically apply their theoretical knowledge?

The research applied a pre–post questionnaire research method to gauge the students' ability to apply their theoretical knowledge to a practical scenario before and after the simulation.

From the results, it is apparent that the students were inspired with confidence in getting to terms with the application of their theoretical knowledge in a real-life scenario. The computer simulation provided the platform for learning to take place in a practical environment without the risk of errors that would translate into real financial consequences.

The contribution of this research can be found in a teaching intervention that may support the training of future tax professionals in practical application skills. The contribution can be extended to the enhancement of education in the field of taxation, particularly with the results' showing that the students experienced high levels of increased confidence in their application of theoretical knowledge to real-life scenarios.

The purpose of this study was to analyze the effectiveness of simulation learning techniques within both face-to-face and online courses. The specific objective for this study was to answer two questions: (1) What are the specific benefits the simulation learning component adds to the course(s)? (2) How do students perceive the usefulness of the simulation learning component to their prepared readiness to enter the industry?

An open-ended survey was administered at the end of the course to conduct a content analysis of student perspectives of the incorporation of cloud-based, educational simulation learning into educational courses. A discussion of the students' perspective of the SIM labs benefits, ease of use and perceived usefulness of this trending learning component has been reviewed, along with the comparison of the online and face-to-face viewpoints.

Some of the identified successes were the ability to collaborate between online and face-to-face classes. Another was the ability to incorporate the application and decision-making components of the textbook into their virtual position of the simulation (SIM) learning lab from an owner's/general manager's perspective. Finally, the SIM labs provided the instructor with a measurable tool to have students compete in a healthy environment.

Valuable insights were gained into the student's perspective and helped in needed adjustments to better utilize this type of active learning. By studying a specific simulation learning component of this type of electronic learning (e-learning,) valuable contextual explanations to support the other types of active learning techniques mentioned above can be gained.