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This chapter describes the scenario technique used for the integrative methodological approach (IMA) of the German global change project GLOWA Elbe. It is outlined how regional scenarios are systematically derived to analyze water use conflicts and their resolution in the context of global change for the German Elbe river basin. Through the combination of frameworks of development and policy strategies a consistent set of developmental scenarios can be generated that makes it possible to examine the regional impact of policy strategies under conditions of different future global change development paths. The scenario analysis of the framework of development starts on the global level with qualitative IPCC storylines, translates them to the regional level, and quantifies their regional effects by means of modeling and statistical estimation methods. The policy strategies are derived in close cooperation with regional stakeholders.

The purpose of this chapter is to compile the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system, determine the role of scenario that envisages practical implementation of the new model of a well-balanced information economy among these scenarios according to the criterion of effectiveness and probability, and select and substantiate the optimal scenario.

Due to the absence of initial statistical information that allows characterizing the basic conditions for further development of information economy in the global economic system, the method of stochastic modeling is used for describing forecast scenarios in this chapter. This method is used due to its applicability for forecast analysis in the conditions of uncertainty. With the help of this method, qualitative description of the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system is accompanied by selected quantitative characteristics, which are conventional, that is, they are given for comparing various scenarios, not for specifying a precise value of estimate indicators. Comparison of the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system is conducted using comparative analysis method.

It is concluded that the most effective and optimal scenario is the one that supposes implementation of the offered new model of a well-balanced information economy – despite its lower probability as compared to the other scenarios.

The set optimal expected scenario of development of information economy, which envisages application of its new well-balanced model, is recommended for practical implementation in the modern economic systems.

In this chapter, the integrative methodological approach (IMA) of the research project GLOWA Elbe is introduced, which represents a scientific methodology to support water management under uncertainty regarding future paths of global change. The approach paves the way for integration of research work of many disciplines, of different assessment methods, of various policy fields, and the involvement of relevant stakeholders and decision makers. IMA can be roughly described by four research elements (scenario derivation, indicator and criteria identification, model-based impact analysis, and final scenario assessment based on combined benefit–cost and multi-criteria analysis), which lay the basis for the IMA activities of the global change research sequence. Its practical application is demonstrated by a case study on the Spree and Schwarze Elster river basins. Specific results of Chapter 4 (on scenario derivation) and Chapter 11 (on integrating economic evaluation into water management simulation) in this volume are picked up in order to focus on the illustration of the integrated assessment results for this German case study.

This chapter presents projections of residential development in Wappinger Creek watershed of Dutchess County, New York in the Hudson River Valley. A spatial econometric model is developed based on data from a geographical information system (GIS) of county-level socio-economic trends, tax parcel attributes, town-level zoning restrictions, location variables, and bio-geophysical constraints including slope, soil type, riparian and agricultural zones. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to distribute spatially explicit projections of land-use change under various residential development scenarios. Scenario analysis indicates the likelihood of continued residential, decentralized development patterns in formerly agricultural and forested parcels. Policy scenarios demonstrate possible courses of action to direct development and protect watershed health.

This paper presents an approach for developing critical skills necessary for competition in the future. The study combines the methodology of designing scenarios with the methodology of defining competencies by a transition from future scenarios to skills, based on product scenarios. Product scenarios indicate concrete alternative future products that are key sources for identifying future skills. The approach has been applied to the security equipment sector in Turkey. The product, closed circuit television (CCTV) system is chosen to illustrate the process.

Scenarios are cognitive aids for thinking about the future in a sustained and disciplined manner. Because scenarios must be facilitated, scenarios must be considered in the context of their practice. In the strategic management literature, there has been a considerable conversation on the practical difference between “hot” and “cold” cognition. Thinking in this conventional literature demonstrates how the facilitators of scenario planning workshops establish and channel the productive cognition of their clients away from hot cognition and toward cold cognition. But how? As a thought experiment, we examine whether the sociological concept of “emotional labor” helps explain the cognition management of clients by facilitators during scenario planning. We end by considering how a deeper practical understanding of emotional labor might help facilitators identify mechanisms and adapt their tools to better manage the cognitive-affective dimensions of scenario planning in practice.

While Dalton and Radtke (2013) examine the effects of Machiavellianism and an organization's ethical environment within a low moral intensity setting, I examine the effects of Machiavellianism and an organization's ethical environment across both low and high moral intensity settings. Using a sample of 192 MTurk workers (i.e., online labor pool participants from Amazon's Mechanical Turk) and 127 undergraduate accounting students, the results using the full-sample of participants indicate the following: (1) Machiavellianism is negatively associated with whistle-blowing intentions across both low and high moral intensity scenarios; (2) an organization's ethical environment is positively associated with whistle-blowing intentions across both low and high moral intensity scenarios; and (3) in the low moral intensity scenario (but not the high moral intensity scenario), I find an interaction between Machiavellianism and the strength of the ethical environment. Implications for research and practice are discussed.