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This paper generalizes the quadratic framework introduced by Le Courtois (2016) and Sumpf (2018), to obtain new credibility premiums in the balanced case, i.e. under the balanced squared error loss function. More precisely, the authors construct a quadratic credibility framework under the net quadratic loss function where premiums are estimated based on the values of past observations and of past squared observations under the parametric and the non-parametric approaches, this framework is useful for the practitioner who wants to explicitly take into account higher order (cross) moments of past data.

In the actuarial field, credibility theory is an empirical model used to calculate the premium. One of the crucial tasks of the actuary in the insurance company is to design a tariff structure that will fairly distribute the burden of claims among insureds. In this work, the authors use the weighted balanced loss function (WBLF, henceforth) to obtain new credibility premiums, and WBLF is a generalized loss function introduced by Zellner (1994) (see Gupta and Berger (1994), pp. 371-390) which appears also in Dey et al. (1999) and Farsipour and Asgharzadhe (2004).

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest and the funding information is not applicable.

This work is motivated by the following: quadratic credibility premium under the balanced loss function is useful for the practitioner who wants to explicitly take into account higher order (cross) moments and new effects such as the clustering effect to finding a premium more credible and more precise, which arranges both parts: the insurer and the insured. Also, it is easy to apply for parametric and non-parametric approaches. In addition, the formulas of the parametric (Poisson–gamma case) and the non-parametric approach are simple in form and may be used to find a more flexible premium in many special cases. On the other hand, this work neglects the semi-parametric approach because it is rarely used by practitioners.

There are several examples of actuarial science (credibility).

In this paper, the authors used the WBLF and a quadratic adjustment to obtain new credibility premiums. More precisely, the authors construct a quadratic credibility framework under the net quadratic loss function where premiums are estimated based on the values of past observations and of past squared observations under the parametric and the non-parametric approaches, this framework is useful for the practitioner who wants to explicitly take into account higher order (cross) moments of past data.

The purpose of this paper is to test whether financial analysts’ rationality in making stocks’ earnings forecasts is homogenous or not across different information regimes in stocks’ past returns.

By treating stocks’ past returns as the information variable in this study, the authors employ a threshold regression model to capture and test threshold effects of stocks’ past returns on financial analysts’ rationality in making earnings forecasts in different information regimes.

The results show that three significant structural breaks and four respective information regimes are identified in stocks’ past returns in the threshold regression model. Across the four different information regimes, financial analysts react to stocks’ past returns quite differently when making one-quarter ahead earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the authors find that financial analysts are only rational in a certain information regime of stocks’ past returns depending on a certain return-window such as one-quarter, two-quarter or four-quarter time period.

This study is different from those in the existing literature by arguing that there could exist heterogeneity in financial analysts’ rationality in making earnings forecasts when using stocks’ past returns information. The finding that financial analysts react to stocks’ past returns differently in the different information regimes of past returns adds value to the research on financial analysts’ rationality.

This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4 to assess monetary and fiscal policy interactions and their impact on economic stabilization. Outcomes of monetary and fiscal authority commitment to policy instruments, interest rate, government spending and taxes, are evaluated using Taylor-type and optimal simple rules.

The study extends the stylized micro-founded small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model, proposed by Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), by explicitly introducing fiscal policy behavior into the model (Fragetta and Kirsanova, 2010 and Çebi, 2011). The model is calibrated using quarterly data for Egypt on key macroeconomic variables during FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4; and Bayesian methods are used in estimation.

The results show that monetary and fiscal policy instruments in Egypt contribute to economic stability through their effects on inflation, output and debt stock. The monetary policy Taylor rule estimates reveal that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) attaches significant importance to anti-inflationary policy and (to a lesser extent) to output targeting but responds weakly to nominal exchange rate variations. CBE decisions are significantly influenced by interest rate smoothing. Egyptian fiscal policy has an important role in output and government debt stabilization. Additionally, the fiscal authority chooses pro-cyclical government spending and counter-cyclical tax policies for output stabilization. Again, past values of the fiscal instruments are influential in the evolution of the future fiscal policy-making process.

A few studies have examined the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Egypt within a unified framework. The presented paper integrates the monetary and fiscal policy analysis within a unified dynamic general equilibrium open economy rational expectations framework. Without such a framework, it would not be easy to jointly analyze monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms for output, inflation and debt. Also, it would be neither possible to contrast the outcome of monetary and fiscal authorities commitment to a simple Taylor instrument rule vis-à-vis optimal policy outcomes nor to assess the behavior of monetary and fiscal agents in macroeconomic stability in context of an active/passive policy decisions framework.

The link between confidence and economic decisions has been widely covered in the economic literature, yet it is still an unexplored field in tourism. The purpose of this paper is to address this gap, and investigate benefits in forecast accuracy that can be achieved by combining the UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index (TCI) with statistical forecasts.

Research is conducted in a real-life setting, using UNWTO unique data sets of tourism indicators. UNWTO TCI is pooled with statistical forecasts using three distinct approaches. Forecasts efficiency is assessed in terms of accuracy gains and capability to predict turning points in alternative scenarios, including one of the hardest crises the tourism sector ever experienced.

Results suggest that the TCI provides meaningful indications about the sign of future growth in international tourist arrivals, and point to an improvement of forecast accuracy, when the index is used in combination with statistical forecasts. Still, accuracy gains vary greatly across regions and can hardly be generalised. Findings provide meaningful directions to tourism practitioners on the use opportunity cost to produce short-term forecasts using both approaches.

Empirical evidence suggests that a confidence index should not be collected as input to improve their forecasts. It remains a valuable instrument to supplement official statistics, over which it has the advantage of being more frequently compiled and more rapidly accessible. It is also of particular importance to predict changes in the business climate and capture turning points in a timely fashion, which makes it an extremely valuable input for operational and strategic decisions.

The use of sentiment indexes as input to forecasting is an unexplored field in the tourism literature.

The article aims to investigate the effects of ownership and capital structure on postacquisition operating performance.

The article extends the ongoing literature from an operating loss perspective and provides empirical evidence on the probability of acquirers’ operating loss in relation to ownership and capital structure. The operating performance of publicly listed manufacturing firms in China was tracked up to five years since the completion of the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) during 2003–2014.

The empirical results show that, in a five-year postacquisition period, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are more likely to experience operating loss than non-SOEs. The likelihood of the operating loss is negatively associated with ownership concentration, implying that concentrated ownership may serve as an effective corporate governance mechanism in the emerging economy and improve postacquisition performance. The rise in leverage increases the likelihood of postacquisition operating loss, indicating that the costs of debt may outweigh the benefits.

The findings contribute to the literature on ownership, debt governance and post-M&A performance from an emerging economy perspective.

This study aims to empirically analyze the asset allocation capabilities of Outsourced Chief Investment Officers (OCIOs) in Korea. The empirical analysis used data from 35 funds that were evaluated by the Ministry of Strategy and Finance from 2012 to 2020. The results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, this study found that funds that adopted OCIO improved their asset allocation performance. Second, the sensitivity between risk-taking and performance decreased for funds that adopted OCIO. Third, it is found that OCIO adoption improves a fund's asset management execution (tactical capabilities). This study has methodological limitations in which the methodology used in this study is not based on theoretical prior research, but on practical applications. However, considering the need to clearly analyze the capabilities of OCIO and the timeliness of the topic, this study is valuable and can provide meaningful information to funders who are considering adopting OCIO in the future.

This study aims to analyse the non-linear losses of a porous media (stack) composed by parallel plates and inserted in a resonator tube in oscillatory flows by proposing numerical correlations between pressure gradient and velocity.

The numerical correlations origin from computational fluid dynamics simulations, conducted at the microscopic scale, in which three fluid channels representing the porous media are taken into account. More specifically, for a specific frequency and stack porosity, the oscillating pressure input is varied, and the velocity and the pressure-drop are post-processed in the frequency domain (Fast Fourier Transform analysis).

It emerges that the viscous component of pressure drop follows a quadratic trend with respect to velocity inside the stack, while the inertial component is linear also at high-velocity regimes. Furthermore, the non-linear coefficient b of the correlation ax + bx² (related to the Forchheimer coefficient) is discovered to be dependent on frequency. The largest value of the b is found at low frequencies as the fluid particle displacement is comparable to the stack length. Furthermore, the lower the porosity the higher the Forchheimer term because the velocity gradients at the stack geometrical discontinuities are more pronounced.

The main novelty of this work is that, for the first time, non-linear losses of a parallel plate stack are investigated from a macroscopic point of view and summarised into a non-linear correlation, similar to the steady-state and well-known Darcy–Forchheimer law. The main difference is that it considers the frequency dependence of both Darcy and Forchheimer terms. The results can be used to enhance the analysis and design of thermoacoustic devices, which use the kind of stacks studied in the present work.

This study aims to develop a high-quality impairment loss allowance model in conformity with Indonesian Financial Accounting Standards 71 (PSAK 71) that has significant contribution to national interests and the banking industry.

The determination of the impairment loss allowance model is settled through 7 stages, using integration of some statistical methods such as Markov chain, exponential smoothing, time series analysis of behavioral inherent trends of probability of default, tail conditional expectation and Monte Carlo simulation.

The model which is developed by the authors is proven to be a high-quality and reliable model. By using the model, it can be shown that the implementation of the expected credit losses model on Indonesian Financial Accounting Standards 71 is more prudent than the implementation of the incurred loss model on Indonesian Financial Accounting Standards 55.

Determination of defaults was based on days past due, and the analysis in this study did not touch the aspects of hedge accounting in general.

This developed model will contribute significantly to national interests as a source of reference for other banks operating in Indonesia in calculating impairment loss allowance (CKPN) and can be used by the Financial Services Authority of Indonesia (OJK) as a guideline in assessing the formation of impairment loss allowance for banks operating in Indonesia.

As so far there is not yet an available standardized model for calculating impairment loss allowance on the basis of Indonesian Financial Accounting Standards 71, the model developed by the authors will be a new breakthrough in Indonesia.

As the strategy of 5G new infrastructure is deployed and advanced, 5G-R becomes the primary technical system for future mobile communication of China’s railway. V2V communication is also an important application scenario of 5G communication systems on high-speed railways, so time synchronization between vehicles is critical for train control systems to be real-time and safe. How to improve the time synchronization performance in V2V communication is crucial to ensure the operational safety and efficiency of high-speed railways.

This paper proposed a time synchronization method based on model predictive control (MPC) for V2V communication. Firstly, a synchronous clock for V2V communication was modeled based on the fifth generation mobile communication-railway (5G-R) system. Secondly, an observation equation was introduced according to the phase and frequency offsets between synchronous clocks of two adjacent vehicles to construct an MPC-based space model of clock states of the adjacent vehicles. Finally, the optimal clock offset was solved through multistep prediction, rolling optimization and other control methods, and time synchronization in different V2V communication scenarios based on the 5G-R system was realized through negative feedback correction.

The results of simulation tests conducted with and without a repeater, respectively, show that the proposed method can realize time synchronization of V2V communication in both scenarios. Compared with other methods, the proposed method has faster convergence speed and higher synchronization precision regardless of whether there is a repeater or not.

This paper proposed an MPC-based time synchronization method for V2V communication under 5G-R. Through the construction of MPC controllers for clocks of adjacent vehicles, time synchronization was realized for V2V communication under 5G-R by using control means such as multistep prediction, rolling optimization, and feedback correction. In view of the problems of low synchronization precision and slow convergence speed caused by packet loss with existing synchronization methods, the observer equation was introduced to estimate the clock state of the adjacent vehicles in case of packet loss, which reduces the impact of clock error caused by packet loss in the synchronization process and improves the synchronization precision of V2V communication. The research results provide some theoretical references for V2V synchronous wireless communication under 5G-R technology.