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In recent years, several methodologies for measuring portfolio credit risk have been introduced that demonstrate the benefits of using internal models to measure credit risk in the loan book. These models measure economic credit capital and are specifically designed to capture portfolio effects and account for obligor default correlations. An example of an integrated market and credit risk model that overcomes this limitation is given in Iscoe et al. [1999], which is equally applicable to commercial and retail credit portfolios. However, the measurement of portfolio credit risk in retail loan portfolios has received much less attention than the commercial credit markets. This article proposes a methodology for measuring the credit risk of a retail portfolio, based on the general portfolio credit risk framework of Iscoe et al. The authors discuss the practical estimation and implementation of the model. They demonstrate its applicability with a case study based on the credit card portfolio of a North American financial institution. They also analyze the sensitivity of the results to various assumptions.

The IRB capital requirements of Basel II define the minimum level of capital that the bank has to retain to cover the current risks of its portfolio. The major risk that many banks are facing is credit risk and Basel II provides an approach to calculate its capital requirement. It is well known that Pillar I Basel II approach for credit risk capital requirements does not include concentration risk. The paper aims to propose a model modifying Basel II methodology (IRB) to include name concentration risk.

The model is developed on data based on a portfolio of Greek companies that are financed by Greek commercial banks. Based on the initial portfolio, new portfolios were simulated having a range of different credit risk parameters. Subsequently, the credit VaR of various portfolios was regressed against the credit risk indicators such as Basel II capital requirements, modified Herfindahl Index and a non-linear model was developed. This model modifies the Pillar I IRB capital requirements model of Basel II to include name concentration risk.

As the Pillar I IRB capital requirements model of Basel II does not include concentration risk, the credit VaR calculations performed in the present work appeared to have gaps with the Basel II capital requirements. These gaps were more apparent when there was high concentration risk in the credit portfolios. The new model bridges this gap providing with a correction coefficient.

The credit VaR of a loan portfolio could be calculated from the bank easily, without the use of additional complicated algorithms and systems.

The model is constructed in such a way as to provide an approximation of credit VaR satisfactory for business loan portfolios whose risk parameters lie within the range of those in a realistic bank credit portfolio and without the application of Monte Carlo simulations.

This paper aims to improve decision making in credit portfolio management through analytical data-mining methods, which should be used as data availability and data quality of credit portfolios increase due to (semi-)automated credit decisions, improved data warehouses and heightened information needs of portfolio management.

To contribute to this fact, this paper elaborates credit portfolio analysis based on cluster analysis. This statistical method, so far mainly used in other disciplines, is able to determine “hidden” patterns within a data set by examining data similarities.

Based on several real-world credit portfolio data sets provided by a financial institution, the authors find that cluster analysis is a suitable method to determine numerous multivariate contract specifications implying high or, respectively, low profit potential.

Nevertheless, cluster analysis is a statistical method with multiple possible settings that have to be adjusted manually. Thus, various different results are possible, and as cluster analysis is an application of unsupervised learning, a validation of the results is hardly possible.

By applying this approach in credit portfolio management, companies are able to utilize the information gained when making future credit portfolio decisions and, consequently, increase their profit.

The paper at hand provides a unique structured approach on how to perform a multivariate cluster analysis of a credit portfolio by considering risk and return simultaneously. In this context, this procedure serves as a guidance on how to conduct a cluster analysis of a credit portfolio including advices for the settings of the analysis.

I. INTRODUCTION A typical shortcoming of most current credit portfolio models is the lack of a stochastic modeling of risk factors, such as interest rates or credit spreads, during the revaluation process at the risk horizon. For example, fixed income instruments, such as bonds or loans, are revalued at the risk horizon using the current forward rates and (rating class specific) forward credit spreads for discounting future cash flows. Hence, the stochastic nature of the instrument's value in the future which results from changes in factors other than credit quality is ignored, and the riskiness of the credit portfolio at the risk horizon is underestimated. A further consequence is that correlations between changes of the debtor's default probability and changes of market risk factors and, hence, the exposure at default cannot be integrated into the credit portfolio model. This drawback is especially relevant for portfolios of defaultable market‐driven derivatives. One reason why risk factors not directly related to credit risk are neglected in most current credit portfolio models is that there is still no commonly accepted approach for modeling the credit quality of a debtor and the dependencies between the credit quality changes of different debtors. Hence, it might be over‐ambitious to incorporate correlations between market risk factors and credit quality changes. Even empirical evidence on the sign of the correlation remains inconclusive. Additionally, introducing stochastic market risk factors and modeling the correlation between these risk factors and credit quality changes would significantly increase the computational burden for calculating robust risk measures of credit portfolios.

Inquiring into the role of Islamic and conventional banks regarding the core responsibility of lending is an established phenomenon. This chapter is based on key findings regarding dynamic changes in the structural mix of credit portfolios in Islamic banks and conventional banks of Pakistan.

The nature of the study is exploratory; the sample consists of 5 Islamic banks and 20 conventional banks of Pakistan comparatively evaluated for the time frame of 2008–2014.

Our findings show that for Islamic banks, there is an increasing trend in the credit portfolios as a proportion to assets as well as to equity, whereas in case of conventional banks the findings are opposite. The results further prove a positive and negative growth of credit portfolios as proportional to assets and equity in case of Islamic and conventional banks respectively. It is also observed that credit portfolios of Islamic banks are growing with higher degree as a proportion to equity as compared to proportion to assets. On the other hand, conventional banks show higher degree of decline of credit portfolios as a proportion to equity as compared to assets.

These findings also show that primary stakeholders in Islamic banks are more risk seekers thus more inclined towards risky investments than ordinary credits.

The purpose of this paper is to build an easy to implement, pragmatic and parsimonious yet accurate model to determine an exposure at default (EAD) distribution for CCL (contingent credit lines) portfolios.

Using an algorithm similar to the basic CreditRisk+ and Fourier Transforms, the authors arrive at a portfolio level probability distribution of usage.

The authors perform a simulation experiment which illustrates the convolution of two portfolio segments to derive an EAD distribution, chosen randomly from Moody's Default Risk Service (DRS) database of CCLs rated as of 12/31/2008, to derive an EAD distribution. The standard deviation of the usage distribution is found to decrease as we increase the number of puts used, but the mean value remains relatively stable, as the extreme points converge towards the mean to produce a shrinkage in the spread of the distribution. The authors also observe, for the sample portfolio, that an increase in the additional usage rate level also increases the volatility of the associated exposure distribution.

This model, in conjunction with internal bank financial institution research, can be used for banks' EAD estimation as mandated by Basel II for bank CCL portfolios, or implemented as part of a Solvency II process for insurers exposed to credit sensitive unfunded commitments. Apart from regulatory requirements, distributions of stochastic exposure generated can be inputs for different economic capital models and stress testing procedures used to capture an accurate risk profile of the portfolio, as well as providing better insights into the problem of managing liquidity risk for a portfolio of CCLs and similar exposures.

In‐spite of the large volume of CCLs in portfolios of financial institutions all (for commercial banks holding these as well as for insurance companies having analogous exposures), paucity of EAD models, unsuitability of external data and inconsistent internal data with partial draw‐downs have been a major challenge for risk managers as well as regulators in managing CCL portfolios.

Tails probabilities are of paramount importance in shaping the risk profile of portfolios with credit risk sensitive securities. In this context, risk management tools require simulations that accurately capture the tails, and optimization models that limit tail effects. Ignoring tail events in the simulation or using inadequate optimization metrics can have significant effects and reduce portfolio efficiency. The resulting portfolio risk profile can be grossly misrepresented when long‐run performance is optimized without accounting for short‐term tail effects. This article illustrates pitfalls and suggests models to avoid them.

Financial systemic risk is often assessed by the interconnectedness of financial institutes (FI) in terms of cross-ownership, overlapping investment portfolios, interbank credit exposures, etc. Less is known about the interconnectedness between FIs through the lens of consumer credits. Using detailed consumer credit data in Canada, this chapter constructs a novel banking network to measure FIs’ interconnectedness in the consumer credit markets. Results show that FIs on average are more connected to each other over the sample period, with the interconnectedness measure increases by 19% from 2013 Q4 to 2019 Q4. FIs with more diversified portfolios are more connected in the network. Among various types of FIs, secondary FIs have the notable increase in interconnectedness. Domestic Systemically Important Banks and secondary FIs offering a broad range of loan products are more connected to large FIs, while those specialized in single loan types are more connected to their industry peers. FI connectedness is also significantly related to their participation in the mortgage markets.

Commodity price volatility and small variations in climate conditions may have an important impact on the creditworthiness of any agricultural project. The evolution of such risk factors is vital for the credit risk analysis of a rural bank. The purpose of this paper is to determine the importance of price volatility and climate factors within a default risk model.

The authors estimate a generalized linear model (GLM) based on a structural default risk model. With the estimated factor loadings, the authors simulate the loss distribution of the portfolio and perform stress test to determine the impact of the relevant risk factors on economic capital.

The results indicate that both the price volatility and climate factors are statistically significant; however, their economic significance is smaller compare to other factors that the authors control for: macroeconomic conditions for the agricultural sector and intermediate input prices.

The analysis of non-systemic risk factors such as price volatility and climate conditions requires statistical methods focussed on measuring causal effects at higher quantiles, not just at the conditional mean, this is, however, a current limitation of GLMs.

The authors provide a design of a portfolio credit risk model, that is more suited to the special characteristics of a rural bank, than commercial credit risk models.

The paper incorporates agricultural-specific risk factors in a default risk model and a portfolio credit risk model.

A credit risk model suitable for agricultural lenders is identified. The model incorporates sector correlations and is applied to the loan portfolio of an agricultural credit association to create a distribution of loan losses. The distribution is used to derive the lender’s expected and unexpected losses. Results of the analysis indicate that the association is more than adequately capitalized based on 1997S2002 data. Since the capital position of the association is lower than that of most other associations in the Farm Credit System, this raises the issue of overcapitalization in the System.