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The challenge of truckload routing is increased in complexity by the introduction of stochastic demand. Typically, this demand is generalized to follow a Poisson distribution. In this chapter, we cluster the demand data using data mining techniques to establish the more acceptable distribution to predict demand. We then examine this stochastic truckload demand using an econometric discrete choice model known as a count data model. Using actual truckload demand data and data from the bureau of transportation statistics, we perform count data regressions. Two outcomes are produced from every regression run, the predicted demand between every origin and destination, and the likelihood that that demand will occur. The two allow us to generate an expected value forecast of truckload demand as input to a truckload routing formulation. The negative binomial distribution produces an improved forecast over the Poisson distribution.

The purpose of this paper is to indicate trade characteristics of Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in China and examine the dynamic interaction between FDI inflows and China’s international trade through empirical analysis.

At first, this paper builds the probability distribution model (Poisson and negative binomial (NB)) to capture the characteristics of spatial distribution of all kinds of FDI firms in Chinese cities and provinces based on count data, so as to indicate the potentials for further introducing FDI inflows in China; Second, this paper investigates the effects of trade on FDI firms inflows based on probability regress model (Binary Logit, Tobit, NB, Poisson, zero inflated negative binomial) and shows how international trade accelerates the different kinds of FDI firms to agglomerate in Eastern, Middle and Western region by the endowments of factors; third, this paper empirically examines the magnitude and characteristics of trade effects generated by FDI inflows by building dynamic panel model based on continuous data.

First, statistical tests of probability distribution model based on count data show that there are characteristics of spatial agglomeration of FDI firms such as manufacture firm, R & D firm, managing and marketing firm and total sectors, which obey NB distribution as whole; Second, this study indicate that FDI inflows have strong positive effects on the international trade in China’s provinces and on China’s regional trade, and that most of foreign firms in China are export oriented being strongly characterized as labor-intensive industries, especially, contributions of FDI to imports are greater than the contributions of FDI to exports in China’s Middle and Western trade, and the growth of FDI trade in China’s trade volume has been strong over the past years; third, the empirical results of models based on count data and continuous data indicate that FDI inflows have significantly positive relationship with international trade, that is, the relationship between FDI and international trade in the case of China is the characteristics with complement and imports substituting relationship.

Because of mixed data set for FDI inflows of processing and assembling trade and production-oriented FDI, efficiency-seeking and knowledge or technology – intensive FDI inflows in the past 36 years, the paper only investigate characteristics of FDI inflows in China before the turning point of financial crisis, but it is important for capturing the whole picture of trade characteristics of FDI inflows in China.

The derived quantitative results imply that there are still greater potentials for further introducing FDI inflows in China, and decision-maker should make policy of introducing FDI inflows which are favorable to supporting innovative activities and economic agglomeration, and preferably encourage efficiency-seeking and export-oriented FDI inflows so as enhance quality and efficiency of economic growth, which are also helpful to accelerate upgrade of Chinese industry and gradually shorten gap of growth among Eastern, Middle and Western region.

FDI inflows in China not only stimulate the remarkable growth of bilateral trade between host country and home country, but also promote the growth of international trade between China and the rest of the world. Thus, policies of bilateral or multilateral free-trade and investment area should be encouraged, which will be also favorable to promote the growth and welfare in all the regions.

This paper demonstrates that spatial distributions of FDI firms in Chinese cities and provinces obey NB probability distribution pattern, and puts forward the methodology of model based on count data and continuous data. Besides, this paper quantitatively indicates trade characteristics of FDI inflows in China as well as the dynamic interaction between FDI inflows and China’s international trade.

Branching is not the only way for foreign banks to enter a national market, and it is impractical when there are informational and cultural barriers and asymmetries among countries. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the determinants of cross-border branching in the Latin American banking sector, a region with regulatory disparity and political and economic instability, offering elements to a grounded strategic decision.

This study uses data from six Latin American countries. To account for the preponderance of zero counts, classes of zero-inflated models are applied (Poisson, negative binomial, and mixed). Model fit indicators obtained from differences between observed and estimated counts are used for comparisons, considering branches in each region established by banks from every other foreign region of the sample.

Branching by foreign banks is positively correlated with the population, GDP per capita, household disposable income, and economic freedom score of the host country. The opposite holds for the unemployment rate and entry regulations of the host country.

Few paper address cross-border banking in emerging economies. This paper analyzes cross-border branching in Latin America in the context of the current financial integration and bank strategy. Econometrically, its pioneering design allows modeling of inflation of zeros, over-dispersion, and the multilevel data structure. This design allowed testing of a novel country-level variable: the host country’s economic freedom score.

The Chinese Government has used a number of policies to encourage commercial agribusiness firms to do more innovation. These include public sector agricultural research and development (R&D), public sector biotechnology research and innovation, subsidies for commercial research, encouraging foreign firms to invest in China as minority shareholders in joint ventures, and allowing commercial companies to raise money on the stock market. The purpose of this paper is to assess whether these policies were effective in stimulating innovations by commercial firms in China.

This study estimates the impact of public biotech research and other policies by employing an econometric model of patenting by commercial firms. It uses a unique data set collected from commercial agribusiness firms for the years 2001, 2004, 2005, and 2006. Addition data were collected from public research institutes and universities and patent data from the Derwent Innovations Index database. It employs four count data models for the empirical analysis.

This study finds a positive impact of public biotechnology (measured by the number of biotech patents of government research institutes and public universities) on commercial innovation measured by the number of patents granted to the commercial firms. As expected the firm’s research expenditure and having their own R&D center (as opposed to contracting R&D or no R&D investment at all) have a positive and statistically significant effect on the number of patents granted. The impacts of public R&D investment spending have no statistically significant effect on commercial innovation. Multi-national firms and publicly traded firms have fewer patents than their counterparts suggesting that policies to encourage multi-nationals and financing through stock markets had no impact on innovation.

This study is one of the first studies to untangle the relationship between government policies and innovation by commercial agricultural research output and public R&D investment and biotechnology. The main findings suggest that simply increasing research money to public research does not increase commercial innovations, but moving resources to the development patentable biotech does improve commercial research productivity. The results also suggest that policies to increase commercial research will also increase innovation. These could include strengthening the legal framework and institutional resources for public institutes to the protection and enforcement of intellectual properties.

The World Health Organization issued its global action plan on physical activities 2018–2030, emphasizing the importance of context-specific evidence on the subject. Accordingly, this study aims to provide unique and important policy insights on trends and drivers of participation in physical exercises by academic community in Sri Lankan universities.

For this purpose, we collected cross-sectional data (n = 456) in 2020 using a survey, and first, estimated a double-hurdle model to uncover covariates influencing likelihood and intensity of physical exercises overall. Second, count-data models are estimated to capture regularity of key exercises.

The results reveal that about 50% of members do not participate in any general physical exercise. Older members (marginal effect (ME) = 3.764, p < 0.01), non-Buddhists (ME = 54.889, p < 0.01) and alcohol consumers (ME = 32.178, p < 0.05) exhibit a higher intensity of participating in exercises overall. The intensity is lower for rural members (ME = −63.807, p < 0.01) and those with health insurance covers (ME = −31.447, p < 0.05). Individuals diagnosed for chronic illnesses show a higher likelihood of exercising but, their time devotion is limited. The number of children the academic staff members have as parents reduces the likelihood, but for those who choose to exercise have higher time devotion with increased number of children. The covariates play a similar role in determining regularity of key exercises: walking, jogging and exercising on workout machines.

The results imply a need to promote exercising in general and particularly among younger, healthy, insured and female individuals living in rural sector.

The study covers an under-researched professional sub-group in an under-researched developing context, examining both the likelihood and regularity of exercising as both dimensions are equally important for individuals to maintain healthy lives.

Purpose – Time-series regression models are applied to analyse transport safety data for three purposes: (1) to develop a relationship between transport accidents (or incidents) and various time-varying factors, with the aim of identifying the most important factors; (2) to develop a time-series accident model in forecasting future accidents for the given values of future time-varying factors and (3) to evaluate the impact of a system-wide policy, education or engineering intervention on accident counts. Regression models for analysing transport safety data are well established, especially in analysing cross-sectional and panel datasets. There is, however, a dearth of research relating to time-series regression models in the transport safety literature. The purpose of this chapter is to examine existing literature with the aim of identifying time-series regression models that have been employed in safety analysis in relation to wider applications. The aim is to identify time-series regression models that are applicable in analysing disaggregated accident counts.

Methodology/Approach – There are two main issues in modelling time-series accident counts: (1) a flexible approach in addressing serial autocorrelation inherent in time-series processes of accident counts and (2) the fact that the conditional distribution (conditioned on past observations and covariates) of accident counts follow a Poisson-type distribution. Various time-series regression models are explored to identify the models most suitable for analysing disaggregated time-series accident datasets. A recently developed time-series regression model – the generalised linear autoregressive and moving average (GLARMA) – has been identified as the best model to analyse safety data.

Findings – The GLARMA model was applied to a time-series dataset of airproxes (aircraft proximity) that indicate airspace safety in the United Kingdom. The aim was to evaluate the impact of an airspace intervention (i.e., the introduction of reduced vertical separation minima, RVSM) on airspace safety while controlling for other factors, such as air transport movements (ATMs) and seasonality. The results indicate that the GLARMA model is more appropriate than a generalised linear model (e.g., Poisson or Poisson-Gamma), and it has been found that the introduction of RVSM has reduced the airprox events by 15%. In addition, it was found that a 1% increase in ATMs within UK airspace would lead to a 1.83% increase in monthly airproxes in UK airspace.

Practical applications – The methodology developed in this chapter is applicable to many time-series processes of accident counts. The models recommended in this chapter could be used to identify different time-varying factors and to evaluate the effectiveness of various policy and engineering interventions on transport safety or similar data (e.g., crimes).

Originality/value of paper – The GLARMA model has not been properly explored in modelling time-series safety data. This new class of model has been applied to a dataset in evaluating the effectiveness of an intervention. The model recommended in this chapter would greatly benefit researchers and analysts working with time-series data.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of the risk factors influencing non-compliance in UK organic farming.

The paper uses a formal econometric model of risk analysis to provide empirical evidence on the determinants of non-compliance in organic farming. A panel of data from the archives of the largest control body in the UK for 2007-2009 is used, and specific analyses are performed for two types of non-compliances. A zero inflated count data model is used for the estimation, taking into account the fact that the occurrences of non-compliance are very sparse.

Results show the existence of strong co-dependence of non-compliant behaviours (i.e. the occurrence of major and critical non-compliance increases the probability of occurrence of the minor one; similarly the probability of occurrence of major non-compliance increases when minor non-compliance occur). Besides, livestock production and farm size are relevant risk factors.

Albeit highly representative, the findings are based on Soil Association data only and not on all UK organic farms.

The paper provides practical indications for control bodies, concerning aspects that could be strengthened for more efficient risk-based inspections. The paper advocates the use of financial information like turnover or capital stock, and of data concerning the characteristics of the farmers, that could substantially improve the probability of detecting the most severe non-compliances.

Certification is essential for organic farming, and an improvement of inspection procedures through a risk-based approach could add efficiency and effectiveness to the whole organic food system, with obvious advantages for consumers and the society as a whole.

This paper provides for the first time empirical evidence concerning the implementation of the organic certification system in the UK.

The purpose of this study is to account for a recent non-mainstream econometric approach using microdata and how it can inform research in business administration. More specifically, the paper draws from the applied microeconometric literature stances in favor of fitting Poisson regression with robust standard errors rather than the OLS linear regression of a log-transformed dependent variable. In addition, the authors point to the appropriate Stata coding and take into account the possibility of failing to check for the existence of the estimates – convergency issues – as well as being sensitive to numerical problems.

The author details the main issues with the log-linear model, drawing from the applied econometric literature in favor of estimating multiplicative models for non-count data. Then, he provides the Stata commands and illustrates the differences in the coefficient and standard errors between both OLS and Poisson models using the health expenditure dataset from the RAND Health Insurance Experiment (RHIE).

The results indicate that the use of Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimators yield better results that the log-linear model, as well as other alternative models, such as Tobit and two-part models.

The originality of this study lies in demonstrating an alternative microeconometric technique to deal with positive skewness of dependent variables.

Purpose – Information collected from police crash reports has long been the primary source of data for the analysis of factors that determine the likelihood of a crash (crash frequency) and its resulting severity (measured in terms of the extent of injuries to vehicle occupants). Proper cross-sectional analyses techniques, covered in this chapter, are important for guiding safety policy and countermeasures.

Methodology – This chapter provides an overview of some of the more commonly used cross-sectional statistical and econometric methods, and discusses the nuances and their limitations with regard to how they are applied to typical crash-report data.

Findings – The wide variety of analytic methods available to safety researchers makes the selection of appropriate methods critical. This chapter provides important guidance for safety researchers in their choice of methodological approach.

Implications – Understanding the importance of proper model specification, unobserved heterogeneity, endogeneity and other factors covered in this chapter is extremely important in analysing safety data and must be given full consideration before any results are finalised.

We propose a generic algorithm for numerically accurate likelihood evaluation of a broad class of spatial models characterized by a high-dimensional latent Gaussian process and non-Gaussian response variables. The class of models under consideration includes specifications for discrete choices, event counts and limited-dependent variables (truncation, censoring, and sample selection) among others. Our algorithm relies upon a novel implementation of efficient importance sampling (EIS) specifically designed to exploit typical sparsity of high-dimensional spatial precision (or covariance) matrices. It is numerically very accurate and computationally feasible even for very high-dimensional latent processes. Thus, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of high-dimensional non-Gaussian spatial models, hitherto considered to be computationally prohibitive, becomes feasible. We illustrate our approach with ML estimation of a spatial probit for US presidential voting decisions and spatial count data models (Poisson and Negbin) for firm location choices.